Army vs. Tulane score prediction for AAC Championship Game by expert model

What the analytics predict for Army vs. Tulane in the 2024 AAC Championship Game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Army vs. Tulane score prediction for 2024 AAC Championship Game / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

Tulane and Army face off from historic West Point on Friday night to battle for the AAC Championship. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Army has a chance to win the AAC championship in its first season as members of the conference, boasting college football’s most productive rushing offense, but has almost certainly played itself out of College Football Playoff contention, and would need plenty of outside help to get back in.

Tulane had an outside shot to get into the playoff picture, too, but losing to conference rival Memphis on Thanksgiving pretty much ended those ambitions, although the program is still playing for what would be its second conference title in its third-straight appearance.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Black Knights host the Green Wave?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Army and Tulane compare in the AAC Championship Game.

Tulane vs. Army score prediction

So far, the models are giving a slight edge to the Black Knights at home over the Green Wave, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Army will defeat Tulane by a projected score of 29 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.8 points.

The model gives the Black Knights a narrow 54 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-35-1 (53%) last weekend.

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Tulane vs. Army odds, how to pick the game

Tulane is a 5.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the AAC Championship Game.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -196 and for Army at +162 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Army +5.5
• Black Knights to win +162
• Bet over 45.5 points

That would run in line with where most bettors are putting their money, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the AAC Championship Game.

Army is getting 54 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under 6 points in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Tulane will win the game and cover the point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models take a different view, and expect the Green Wave will take down the Black Knights.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tulane is a decent favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 66.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Army as the expected winner in the remaining 33.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 6.1 points better than Army on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Tulane vs. Army prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Tulane vs. Army in the AAC Championship Game

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: West Point, N.Y.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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