Auburn vs. Cal Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

What the analytics predict for Auburn vs. Cal in this Week 2 college football game.

Auburn Tigers vs. Cal Golden Bears Prediction / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

Now an SEC vs. ACC game thanks to conference realignment, this remains the second of a home-and-home game between Auburn and Cal in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

Coming off a sluggish offensive output from last season, Auburn got a good early preview of Hugh Freeze's recruiting efforts as Payton Thorne and a cast of blue-chip receivers put up 628 yards and 73 points in the season opener against Alabama A&M.

KeAndre Lambert Smith, a transfer from Penn State, scored twice, while Perry Thompson and Cam Coleman each scored once and Auburn's receiving output averaged 25 yards per catch.

There is some concern around Cal running back Jaydn Ott playing in Saturday's game after he sustained a lower body injury in the opener, but head coach Justin Wilcox called his most important player "probable" to appear against Auburn, a good sign for the Golden Bears.

What can we expect from the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Auburn and Cal compare heading into college football's Week 2 game.

Auburn vs. Cal prediction

The simulations favor the Tigers to hold serve at Jordan-Hare against the ACC challenger.

SP+ predicts that Auburn will defeat Cal by a projected score of 36 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 14.8 points.

The model gives Auburn a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory, regardless of margin.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Auburn is a 12.5 point favorite against California, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Auburn at -465 and for Cal at +350.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Auburn -12.5
• Tigers to win -465
• Bet over 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also project the Tigers to win at home this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Auburn is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 81.4 percent of the computer's simulations, while Cal comes out the expected winner in the remaining 18.6 percent of sims.

The index projects that Auburn will be 9.8 points better than Cal on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this spread.

Auburn will win 7.4 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, with a 16.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Cal is projected to win 6.3 games this season on the index, which gives the Golden Bears a 65.4 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

Auburn vs. Cal game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT, 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN2 network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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