Auburn vs. Missouri football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Auburn vs. Missouri by the football model that picks winners.

Auburn vs. Missouri football prediction / Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SEC football returns this weekend as No. 19 Missouri is back home looking for a conference win against Auburn in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Auburn has dropped three straight games and yet to win in SEC play, averaging just 16 points in conference games.

Missouri is 1-1 in SEC games and coming off a 41-10 loss at Texas A&M that raises considerable questions about the team’s playoff viability going forward.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Auburn vs. Missouri predictions

As expected, the simulations favor the home team, but by a more narrow margin.

Missouri is projected to win the game outright in the majority 67.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 32.1 percent of sims.

In total, Missouri came out the winner in 13,580 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Auburn wins out in the other 6,420 predictions.

The index projects a close game, with the home team winning by roughly a touchdown.

Missouri is projected to be 6.7 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Missouri is a 4.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Missouri at -190 and for Auburn at +160 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A strong majority of bets predict that the home team will take care of business, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Missouri is getting 71 percent of bettors’ confidence to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 29 percent of wagers project Missouri will either win the game in an upset, or keep the score within the line.

Auburn vs. Missouri projections

Missouri is eighth among SEC teams with a 14.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index expects Missouri will be 12.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for No. 19 nationally in that category.

That model expects Auburn will win 4.7 games this season with a 23.5 percent shot to make the 12-team playoff.

The index forecasts Auburn to be 7.6 points better than an average opponent, ranking No. 34 among 134 FBS teams and 14th in the SEC.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks