Auburn vs. Missouri score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Auburn vs. Missouri in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Auburn vs. Missouri score prediction / John Reed-Imagn Images

SEC football is back this weekend as No. 19 Missouri returns home against Auburn in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Auburn needs to make a good impression with its season slipping away, starting out 0-3 in SEC play and on a three-game losing streak behind a turnover-prone offense with sloppy quarterback play in this second tilt of a three-game road trip.

Missouri needs to make a statement after an ugly 41-10 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago, and sits at 5-1 overall after beating up on UMass, but trying to avoid falling under .500 in conference play.

What do the analytics suggest for this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Auburn and Missouri compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Auburn vs. Missouri score prediction

As expected, the models favor the home team, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts Missouri will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 31 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 8.3 points.

The model gives Missouri a 70 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Auburn vs. Missouri picks, odds

Missouri is a 4.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Missouri at -190 and for Auburn at +160 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Missouri -4.5
• Mizzou to win -190
• Bet over 51.5 points

A plurality of bettors project that Missouri will handle Auburn this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Nearly 7 in 10 bets -- 68 percent -- expect Missouri to beat Auburn and to cover the spread in the process.

The other 32 percent of wagers suggest that Auburn will either win the game in an upset or will keep the game within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor Missouri to take down Auburn.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri is projected to win the game outright in the majority 67.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 32.1 percent of sims.

Missouri is projected to be 6.7 points better than Auburn on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, also enough to cover the spread.

Missouri is eighth among SEC teams with a 16.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Auburn a win total prediction of 4.7 games and a 22.5 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season.

How to watch Auburn vs. Missouri

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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