Boise vs. UNLV football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Boise State vs. UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game from a football model that simulates games.

Boise State vs. UNLV Mountain West Championship Game football prediction 2024 / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Boise State and UNLV are set to meet in the 2024 Mountain West Championship Game with major College Football Playoff implications on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Boise State marched out to an 11-1 record with just a field goal loss to current No. 1 Oregon early in the year behind the historic play of running back Ashton Jeanty.

UNLV is 10-2 with its two losses coming by a combined 8 points, against Boise State and Syracuse, winning four straight games to close out, ranking 4th in rushing and 7th in scoring.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Boise State vs. UNLV predictions

As expected, the models are favoring the Broncos over the Rebels, but by an apparently narrow margin.

Boise State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 68.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves UNLV as the presumptive winner in the remaining 31.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Broncos come out on top in 13,740 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Rebels edge out Boise State in the other 6,260 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Boise State is projected to be exactly 7 points better than UNLV on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Broncos to cover the spread against the Rebels.

That’s because Boise State is a 3.5 point favorite against UNLV, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 57.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Boise State at -184 and for UNLV at +152 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A strong majority of bettors expect the Broncos will cover the narrow line against the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Boise State is getting 70 percent of the bets to come out on top and cover the point spread.

The other 30 percent of wagers project UNLV will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the line to a field goal or less in a loss.

Boise State vs. UNLV future projections

Boise State is nearly a lock, with a 68.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

A win against the Rebels is effectively a clinching situation for the Broncos to make the playoff, as they would be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.

Likewise for UNLV, which has a 31.4 percent chance to make the 12-team field, according to the index’s latest calculations going into the game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Boise State vs. UNLV

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: Boise, Id.

Time: 6 p.m. MT | 5 p.m. PT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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