BYU Cougars vs. Arizona State Sun Devils prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as BYU and Arizona State meet in this crucial Big 12 matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU vs. Arizona State Prediction 2024 / John Hefti-Imagn Images

What to watch for as No. 21 Arizona State plays host to No. 14 BYU in this crucial Big 12 matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU is undefeated no more after dropping its first game of the season, at home against Kansas, but is still in control of its destiny when it comes to making the Big 12 title game.

Arizona State took a big step towards the conference championship last week after taking out Kansas State, moving into third place in the conference and can take another giant leap this weekend.

What can we expect when the Cougars and Sun Devils meet in this important Big 12 clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as BYU and Arizona State square off in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction.

BYU vs. Arizona State prediction: What you need to know

1. On the ground. Running back Cam Skattebo is integral to Arizona State’s offensive success, emerging as the only player in the country with more than 300 yards receiving and 1,000 yards rushing.

He boasts 4 games of 100-plus rushing yards, is 3rd in FBS with 169 total yards per game, and he leads a backfield that posts 4.55 yards per carry and is 30th nationally in total production.

BYU is 58th in FBS against the run, allowing more than 139 rushing yards per game and 13 touchdowns on the ground while surrendering 4.27 yards per attempt from opposing backs.

The Cougars have had mixed results in rush defense, playing poorly against Oklahoma State, but also holding stronger, top 30 ranked rushing teams like UCF, Baylor, and Kansas to below their averages, and is 17th nationally in expected EPA per carry.

2. What it means. BYU losing to Kansas last week makes things more interesting at the top of a crowded Big 12 title field, and there’s still plenty to play for in the conference over these last two games.

BYU and Colorado have it easy: Win and they’re in. But the Buffaloes can also clinch a spot if they beat Kansas and both Arizona State and Iowa State lose their games this weekend.

Arizona State can earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game by winning its final two games, but needs Colorado and Iowa State to not win their last two, and for BYU to lose against Houston.

3. Air it out. It’ll be strength vs. strength of sorts when Arizona State tries to throw the ball against BYU, as quarterback Sam Leavitt lines up opposite one of the nation’s top defenses.

Leavitt is averaging 429 passing yards per game against AP top 25 ranked teams, hasn’t thrown a pick in 3 games, and is completing nearly 62 percent of his pass attempts.

BYU is allowing just 176 passing yards per game and is tied for the No. 1 spot in the country with 17 intercepted passes this season, with 11 different players coming away with a turnover.

What the analytics say

Most football computer models are split on how to project the game, with a slight majority of them going with the Sun Devils over the Cougars.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Arizona State is the narrow favorite on the index, coming out ahead in 55.7 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves BYU the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arizona State is projected to be 2.1 points better than BYU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... BYU vs. Arizona State prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Arizona State is a 3.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -160 and for BYU at +132 to win outright.

BYU vs. Arizona State prediction: Who wins?

Arizona State has won 6 times in games decided by 10 or fewer points, while BYU has done so in 5 appearances this season. In other words, expect a close game.

Leavitt has been very impressive during the Sun Devils’ recent streak, hitting on 9 touchdowns with no picks, but the Cougars’ pass defense is in another category.

Arizona State’s pass defense is the relative weakness among the major matchups on the field, and the unit could struggle against Jake Retzlaff and the BYU aerial attack, and the Cougars have the bodies to prevent Skattebo from going off.

College Football HQ picks ...

• BYU wins 26-21
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... BYU vs. Arizona State score prediction by expert football model

How to watch BYU vs. Arizona State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Tempe, Ariz.

Time: 1:30 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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