BYU vs. Arizona State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction as BYU faces Arizona State in this Week 13 college football clash by an analytical model that simulates games.

BYU vs. Arizona State football prediction 2024 / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

A major Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 21 Arizona State welcomes No. 14 BYU in a battle of league title hopefuls. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

BYU lost its first game of the season last week, and while it still sits atop the Big 12 standings, is now tied with Colorado with a 6-1 record in Big 12 play.

Arizona State has won its last 3 games, moving to 8-2 overall and 5-2 in conference games sitting right behind the Buffaloes in the league standings.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

BYU vs. Arizona State predictions

So far, the models are siding with the Sun Devils over the Cougars at home.

Arizona State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 55.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves BYU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Sun Devils came out on top in 11,180 simulations of the game, whereas the Cougars edged out ASU in the other 8,820 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arizona State is projected to be 2.1 points better than BYU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Sun Devils to cover the spread.

That’s because Arizona State is a 3.5 point favorite against BYU in the game, according to the latest odds posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it set the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -144 and for BYU at +120 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Cougars to come out on top against the Sun Devils, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 56 percent of bets to pull off the upset and avoid a second-straight loss, or to keep the final margin under 4 points in defeat.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Arizona State will win the game and cover the narrow line.

BYU vs. Arizona State future projections

Right now, the Cougars are ahead of the Sun Devils on the Power Index’s current calculations.

But both are behind the Buffaloes in a notable change to the projections.

BYU is second among Big 12 teams with a 30.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Cougars will win 10.6 games this season.

FPI gives the Sun Devils a 13.5 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.

And it expects Arizona State will win 9.4 games in ‘24.

Colorado moved into first place in the Big 12 standings with a 33.6 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI numbers.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

How to watch BYU vs. Arizona State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Tempe, Ariz.

Time: 1:30 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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