BYU vs. Arizona State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for BYU vs. Arizona State by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

BYU vs. Arizona State score prediction 2024 / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

BYU and Arizona State square off in this critical late-season Big 12 matchup on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

BYU is undefeated no more after dropping its first game of the season, at home against Kansas, but is still in control of its destiny when it comes to making the Big 12 title game.

Arizona State took a big step towards Arlington last week after taking out Kansas State, moving into third place in the conference and can take another giant leap this weekend.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cougars and Sun Devils meet in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how BYU and Arizona State compare in this Week 13 college football game.

BYU vs. Arizona State score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Cougars to avoid a second loss, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Arizona State by a projected score of 27 to 25 and to win the game by an expected margin of 2.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Cougars a narrow 56 percent chance of outright victory over the Sun Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

BYU vs. Arizona State odds, how to pick the game

Arizona State is a 3.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -152 and for BYU at +126 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• BYU +3.5
• Cougars to win +126
• Bet over 48.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a slight majority of bettors who believe the Cougars have upset potential against the Sun Devils, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 56 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset and avoid a second loss, or to keep the final margin under 4 points in defeat.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Arizona State will win the game and cover the narrow line.

BYU vs. Arizona State splits

BYU comes into the game ranked No. 10 nationally when it comes to scoring margin, averaging out 10.3 points better than the competition when adding up the points this season.

Arizona State has been 8 points better than its opponents on average so far in 2024.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games.

BYU has played much closer games in that time, averaging 3.3 points better than opponents, while Arizona State has improved to being 11.7 points better than the competition in that span.

And those numbers grow further apart when considering the venue.

BYU has been 8.6 points better than its opponents on average when playing on the road this season, while Arizona State has been 12.8 points better when at home.

Computer prediction

Other analytical football models are taking a different view of how the game turns out.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Arizona State is its favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 55.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves BYU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arizona State is projected to be 2.1 points better than BYU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would still entail bettors taking BYU +3.5 as the Sun Devils would not cover in this scenario.

How to watch BYU vs. Arizona State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Tempe, Ariz.

Time: 1:30 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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