BYU vs. Kansas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for BYU vs. Kansas in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

BYU vs. Kansas football prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Big 12 rivals meet this weekend as No. 6 BYU looks to stay perfect at home against Kansas. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup by an analytical football model that simulates games.

BYU held onto its undefeated season with a gutsy, last-minute scoring drive to get past rival Utah on the road and strengthen its hold at the top of the Big 12 standings.

Kansas moved to 2-4 in Big 12 play with a win against Iowa State but is one of the nation’s better rushing teams and is averaging almost 32 points per game this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

BYU vs. Kansas predictions

As expected, the computers are siding with the Cougars over the Jayhawks this week.

BYU has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in a majority 60.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Kansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 39.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Cougars came out ahead in 12,180 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Jayhawks edged out BYU in the other 7,820 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is projected to be 4 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Cougars to cover the spread against the Jayhawks.

That’s because BYU is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.6 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for BYU at -142 and for Kansas at +118 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A strong majority of bettors expect the Cougars to easily cover the narrow line against the Jayhawks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 71 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other 29 percent of wagers project Kansas will either win the game outright in an upset on the road or will keep the game under a field goal in a loss.

BYU vs. Kansas future projections

BYU is first among Big 12 teams with a 64.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Cougars a win total projection of 11.4 games this season.

Kansas will have some work to do just getting bowl eligible.

The model forecasts the Jayhawks will win just 4.4 games in ‘24.

That amounts to a 10.5 percent chance to make a bowl game this year.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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How to watch Kansas vs. BYU

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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