BYU vs. Kansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as BYU and Kansas meet in this Big 12 matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU vs. Kansas Prediction / John Hefti-Imagn Images

An important Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 6 BYU plays host to upset-minded Kansas. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU is still perfect through nine games this season and sitting alone atop the Big 12 standings with a clear path to the conference title game and the College Football Playoff, emerging as the projected No. 3 seed in this week’s bracket.

Kansas is starting to look like the team we thought it would be, and although sitting at just 2-4 in Big 12 play, is coming off a big win over league contender Iowa State, but still needs to win all three of its final games in order to earn bowl eligibility.

What can we expect as the Jayhawks pay a visit to the Cougars under the lights this week?

Here’s what you should watch out for as BYU and Kansas meet in this Week 12 college football clash, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU vs. Kansas prediction: What to watch for

1. On the ground. Kansas has turned out a strong ground game of late, averaging just over 213 rushing yards per game and posting a solid 5.67 yards per carry, ranking top 15 nationally in both categories.

BYU has a nasty little habit of allowing some big gainers to get through on the ground and face not just KU back Devin Neal, but mobile quarterback Jalon Daniels, too.

2. Red zone. Kansas is remarkably productive when it gets inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, coming away with points on 97 percent of red area possessions, ranking 4th in FBS. KU has scored on 30 of 31 tries and 25 of those (81%) are touchdowns.

That could be a point of concern for BYU, which despite its other relative defensive strengths while ranking 29th nationally in total production, is just 102nd among 134 FBS teams in the red area, allowing opponents to score on 89 percent of attempts, 63% of those being touchdowns.

3. In the air. Jake Retzlaff leads a stable BYU passing attack, but there are concerns as he is under 59 percent passing on the year and hasn’t completed more than 18 passes in a game in his last 6 outings. Kansas is vulnerable in pass defense, allowing almost 283 yards in the air in Big 12 games this year.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Cougars against the Jayhawks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU comes out ahead in a solid majority 60.9 percent of the computer’s simulations for the game.

The other 39.1 percent of sims forecast a Jayhawks victory in an upset.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is projected to be 4 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... BYU vs. Kansas prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

BYU is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for BYU at -130 and for Kansas at +108 to win outright.

BYU vs. Kansas prediction: Who wins?

Kansas has performed well on offense most of this season, scoring at least 27 points over the last 6 games, thanks in large part to an expert line protecting its productive backfield.

Key to the Jayhawks’ success on offense has been a lack of costly turnovers, but BYU has excelled at forcing the ball away from teams, ranking 5th nationally with 21 takeaways, tied with Alabama.

Kansas will test the Cougars from the jump, and has the ability to take an early lead and put a scare into the home crowd, but BYU has the consistency to test a KU defense that has failed to hold up its end of the bargain at times this year.

College Football HQ picks ...

• BYU wins 31-27
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... BYU vs. Kansas score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Kansas vs. BYU

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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