BYU vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for BYU vs. Oklahoma State in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State score prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 matchup kicks off from Provo between one team on the rise in the conference race and another on the decline as No. 13 BYU hosts Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 8 action on Friday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

BYU is perfect through 6 games and is 3-0 in Big 12 play, thanks to the play of mobile quarterback Jake Retzlaff and a strong defense that has kept all but 1 opponent under 20 points this season.

Oklahoma State, originally a preseason favorite to contend for the Big 12 title, is a surprising 0-3 in conference play, averaging 17 points in those games, and is ranking just 125th among 134 FBS teams in rushing production, despite the return of star tailback Ollie Gordon.

What do the analytics suggest for this Big 12 conference matchup?

For that, let’s check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Oklahoma State compare in this Week 8 college football game.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State score prediction

So far, the models are taking the Cougars over the Cowboys in this one.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Oklahoma State by a projected score of 32 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 8.7 points.

The model gives the Cougars a strong 71 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State odds, picks

BYU is a 9.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for BYU at -315 and for Oklahoma State at +250 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oklahoma State +9.5
• BYU to win -340
• Bet over 52.5 points

A plurality of bettors expect the Cougars to handle the Cowboys, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

Oklahoma State has the other 35 percent of wagers to either win the game in an upset, or to keep the result within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Cougars to take out the Cowboys.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU is projected to win the game outright in the majority 63.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oklahoma State as the expected winner in the remaining 36.9 percent of sims.

BYU is projected to be 4.8 points better than Oklahoma State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, also not enough to cover this spread.

BYU is second among Big 12 teams with a 32.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Oklahoma State a win total prediction of 5.9 games and a 60.6 percent chance to make the postseason.

How to watch Oklahoma State vs. BYU

When: Fri., Oct. 18
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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