BYU vs. Oklahoma State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as BYU and Oklahoma State meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State Prediction / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 matchup kicks off college football’s Week 8 action on Friday night as No. 13 BYU looks to stay perfect against Oklahoma State, which seeks its first conference win. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

BYU is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams, enjoying its best start as a program since 2020 but have lost its last three matchups against Oklahoma State.

In addition to not winning any conference games yet this season, the Cowboys are also 0-2 against ranked opponents and in the midst of some major offensive changes coming into this game.

What can we expect when the Cougars and Cowboys meet this week?

Here’s what you should watch for as BYU and Oklahoma State meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State prediction: What to watch

1. QB change. Alan Bowman is out and Garrett Rangel is apparently in as the Cowboys look to rejuvenate their passing offense after the former threw 6 interceptions in his last 3 games while hitting 51% of his throws. Whoever starts will face a dominant BYU defense that is No. 1 nationally in overall pass efficiency this season.

2. On the ground. Despite the return of Ollie Gordon, the Cowboys rank just 125th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing output, posting under 92 yards per game and averaging 3.3 yards per carry, while Gordon is yet to gain a carry of at least 30 yards this year. BYU is surrendering just 120 yards per game on the ground.

3. Stop the run. So far, the Cowboys haven’t, ranking 131st nationally and last in the Big 12 by allowing 5.47 yards per run and 12 touchdowns to the tune of 235 yards per game, sorely missing top linebackers Collin Oliver and Nick Martin as crucial backstops against opposing ball carriers.

BYU isn’t lighting up the scoreboard on the ground, ranking 85th in FBS with 140 yards per game and just 6 touchdowns, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff leads the team with 184 yards on the ground, but the Cougars should find some holes to punch through, especially in short yardage situations.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models suggest the Cougars will take down the Cowboys on Friday night.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and picks winners.

BYU comes out ahead in 63 percent of the computer’s simulations to win the game outright.

Oklahoma State is the expected winner in the remaining 37 percent of sims.

Expect a close game, as BYU is projected to be 4.8 points better than Oklahoma State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

BYU is a 9 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for BYU at -340 and for Oklahoma State at +270 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors predict the Cougars will handle the Cowboys at home and stay undefeated.

BYU is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the 9 point spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers expect Oklahoma State will either win in an upset or keep the game within the line.

BYU vs. Oklahoma State prediction: Who wins?

BYU is a markedly improved team on both sides of the ball and playing with more confidence, especially at home, where it already has a signature win over ranked Kansas State.

There are too many unanswered questions for the Cowboys coming in, on offense with a big change at quarterback, the unnerving lack of a rushing threat, and a woeful front seven rotation that is missing key personnel.

College Football HQ picks ...

• BYU wins 31-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... BYU vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by expert model

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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