BYU vs. UCF score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for BYU vs. UCF in this Week 9 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

BYU vs. UCF score prediction / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

An important Big 12 matchup that could end up having conference title implications kicks off on Saturday as No. 11 BYU goes on the road to UCF in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

BYU is a perfect 7-0 for the first time since 2020 and squarely in the Big 12 title race atop the conference standings, but can ill afford any slip ups with plenty of competition for a spot in Arlington.

UCF has lost four straight games, falling to 1-3 in Big 12 play, but nearly upset No. 10 Iowa State a week ago and dropped its previous two outings by a combined 9 points.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Knights and Cougars meet in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and UCF compare in this Week 9 college football game.

BYU vs. UCF score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Cougars over the Knights, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat UCF by a projected score of 30 to 26 and to win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points in the victory.

The model gives the Cougars a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

BYU vs. UCF picks, odds

UCF is a 2.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -106, Under -114).

And it set the moneyline odds for UCF at -126 and for BYU at +105 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• BYU +2.5
• Cougars to win +105
• Bet over 54.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, according to the latest spread consensus picks of the game.

BYU is getting 79 percent of bets to pull off the upset on the road, or keep the game within the narrow line.

The other 21 percent of wagers project UCF will beat the Cougars and cover the spread in the process.

BYU vs. UCF splits

BYU has been 9.7 points better than its competition when playing on the road this season.

But the Cougars have improved to being 10.3 points better than its opponents over the last three games overall.

UCF is 0.7 points worse than opponents when playing at home in 2024.

And the Knights have been 6.7 points worse than the competition over their last three games.

BYU is 13.8 points better than opponents overall this season, while UCF is 2.5 points worse.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models take a different view of the game and give the Knights a slight edge.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

UCF is projected to win the game in the slight majority 54 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves BYU as the expected winner in the other 46 percent of sims.

But it’ll be a close game, according to the index: UCF is projected to be just 1.6 points better than BYU on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

BYU vs. UCF future predictions

BYU is second among Big 12 teams with a 42.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Cougars a win total prediction of 10.3 games this season.

UCF will win 5.9 games this season, according to the index’s calculations.

And it gives the Knights a 63.8 percent chance to become bowl eligible in ‘24.

How to watch BYU vs. UCF

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 1:30 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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