BYU vs. Utah football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for BYU vs. Utah in this Week 11 college football game.

BYU vs. Utah football prediction / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 in-state rivalry kicks off under the lights as conference title contender No. 9 BYU hits the road against Utah in the Holy War. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

A month ago, Utah was undefeated. Since then, it’s lost four straight games and sits just 1-4 in a Big 12 title picture it was projected back in the preseason to dominate.

BYU is one of college football’s five remaining undefeated teams, marching out to an 8-0 mark and taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after Iowa State’s loss last weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

BYU vs. Utah predictions

So far, the models are giving an edge to the Cougars over the Utes in this rivalry game.

BYU emerged as a favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 59.5 percent of the computer’s updated simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining 40.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Cougars came out ahead in 11,900 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Utes edged out BYU in the other 8,100 predictions.

How does that translate to a projected margin of victory between these teams?

BYU is projected to be 3.5 points better than Utah, a margin of 4 points if we round up, on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because BYU is a 3.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 40.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for BYU at -182 and for Utah at +150 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors expect the Cougars to stay undefeated against the Utes and cover the narrow margin, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 70 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 30 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset, or keep the game to a field goal or less in a loss.

BYU vs. Utah future predictions

BYU is first among Big 12 teams with a 58.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index gives the Cougars a win total prediction of 11 games this season.

Utah comes into this weekend with a 41.7 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season, according to the computers.

The model gives the Utes a win total projection of 5.4 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch BYU vs. Utah

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 8:15 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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