BYU vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for BYU vs. Utah in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

BYU vs. Utah score prediction / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

A consequential Big 12 in-state rivalry kicks off this Saturday as conference title contender No. 9 BYU hits the road against Utah in the Holy War. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Utah was an undefeated Big 12 title contender a month ago, but since then has lost four straight games and sits just 1-4 in a league title picture it was projected to dominate.

BYU is one of college football’s five remaining undefeated teams, marching out to an 8-0 record and taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after Iowa State’s loss.

What do the analytical models suggest for then the Cougars and Utes meet in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Utah compare in this Week 11 college football game.

BYU vs. Utah score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Cougars over the Utes, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Utah by a projected score of 25 to 23 and win the game by an expected margin of 1.7 points in the process.

The model gives the Cougars a 54 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

BYU vs. Utah odds, how to pick

BYU is a 2.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 40.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for BYU at -140 and for Utah at +116 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Utah +2.5
• BYU to win -140
• Bet over 40.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom are expecting the Cougars will cover the narrow line against the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 72 percent of bets to win the game by at least a field goal and cover the spread to stay undefeated and in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings.

The other 28 percent of wagers project Utah will either hand BYU its first loss in a major upset, or will keep the margin under a field goal in a loss.

BYU vs. Utah splits

BYU comes into the weekend averaging 13.7 points more than opponents when counting up all the points and margins in its wins this season.

Utah is skating by on the narrowest of margins, averaging 0.1 points better against opponents in 2024.

Those averages have changed marginally over the last three games, as the Cougars have played 12.7 points better than opponents and the Utes have been 5.7 points worse over that time.

At home this season, Utah has fared 2.7 points worse than opponents, while BYU has averaged 10.5 points better than the competition when playing on the road in 2024.

BYU and Utah match up well when it comes to points per play: on offense, the Cougars average 0.531 points per play, ranking 15th in FBS, while the Utes allow 0.293 points per play, which ranks 19th nationally.

But the Utes are just 120th in the country with 0.270 points per play on offense, while the Cougars rank 16th in FBS by surrendering 0.287 points per play this year.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models are also taking the Cougars against the Utes in this rivalry game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU came out ahead in the majority 59.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup on a pure win-loss basis.

That leaves Utah as a credible threat to pull off the upset, winning out in the remaining 40.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is projected to be 3.5 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

BYU vs. Utah future projections

BYU ranks first among Big 12 teams with a 49.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Cougars a win total projection of 10.9 games this season.

Nationally, the index ranks BYU at No. 12 among 134 FBS teams in terms of playoff likelihood, and the Cougars did emerge as the projected No. 4 seed in the CFP’s first bracket this week.

Once an apparent lock to make the playoff back during the preseason speculation, the Utes are now struggling to make it to a bowl game.

FPI projects Utah will win 5.4 games in ‘24, with a 41.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch BYU vs. Utah

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 8:15 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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