Clemson Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as Clemson and NC State meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Clemson Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Clemson and NC State face off in this ACC opener on Saturday in college football’s Week 4 action. Here’s what you need to know, along with our updated game prediction.

Clemson pounded Appalachian State in a 66-20 result two weeks ago, blowing out the cobwebs after coming out the wrong end of a 31-point loss to No. 1 Georgia in the season opener.

NC State will be without starting quarterback Grayson McCall after he left last week’s game with an undisclosed injury, meaning we’ll see C.J. Bailey make his first career start against the Tigers.

The Wolfpack bounced back from an ugly 51-10 loss to Tennessee two weeks ago by defeating Louisiana Tech by 10, coming in at 2-1 and looking to avoid falling to .500 on the year.

Clemson, meanwhile, is hoping to avoid falling under .500, sitting at 1-1 this season.

Here’s what you should watch for as Clemson and NC State meet in this Week 4 game, with our updated prediction.

Clemson vs. NC State prediction, preview

Clemson vs. NC State Prediction / Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

When NC State has the ball

Bailey could make a little history by becoming the first freshman quarterback since Tyrod Taylor in 2007 to win at Clemson, but he’s up against some strong opposition in the form of the Tigers’ defense.

The freshman QB started off last week a little rattled and threw an interception, but went on a run throwing the ball and ran for a touchdown, showing off some mobility as he averaged 6.8 yards per touch.

He should get some help from a ground attack led by senior tailback Jordan Waters, who has rushed for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns this year while averaging 4.2 ypc, while sophomore Kendrick Raphael has 92 more yards and another score while averaging 5.8 yards per run.

But the Wolfpack’s principal offensive target is wide receiver Kevin Concepcion, the sophomore who leads the team with 22 receptions for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 2 TD catches off 5 grabs the last time he lined up against Clemson.

Preseason All-American linebacker Barrett Carter mans the middle of the Tigers’ capable front seven, but he’s yet to really dominate, recording 4 stops and 1 quarterback pressure.

The bigger threat for NC State right now is defensive tackle DeMonte Capehart, a fifth-year player who really jumps off the snap and clogs the interior, and has 6 tackles so far.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson quarterback Cade Clubnik struggled in the opener, but responded against App State with a game he’ll never forget, accounting for 7 total TDs and a career-best 378 yards passing.

But he’s struggled somewhat recently, in his last 3 games against Power conference teams having thrown 3 interceptions and been sacked 11 times. Klubnik had 2 INTs and a pick-six in his last game against the Wolfpack.

NC State has intercepted 54 passes the last three seasons, including 3 picks in the last 2 games, but so far this year hasn’t shown itself to be a consistent threat rushing the passer.

With one possible exception, however: defensive end Davin Vann, a veteran and team captain who has started 32 straight games for the Pack, with 9 stops and 2.5 tackles for loss this season.

Phil Mafah carries the load for Clemson on the ground, rushing for 177 yards and a touchdown in 2 games, and is notably averaging a solid 6.8 yards per carry so far.

Clemson vs. NC State odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Clemson: -18.5 (-105)
NC State: +18.5 (-115)

Over 43.5 points: -115
Under 43.5 points: -105

Clemson vs. NC State Prediction

It’s tough to get a line on where Clemson is right now. Probably not as bad as it looked against Georgia, and probably not as good as it looked against Appalachian State.

Bailey could rip off a few quick, short-range passes to Concepcion to build a little early momentum and Waters can peel off some yards against this Tigers front in the opening stages to keep it close.

But the Wolfpack’s ability to block the quarterback consistently was called into serious question after the Tennessee debacle, and Clemson’s front has just as much size and physicality to throw at them, now against a very inexperienced quarterback.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Clemson wins 38-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Clemson vs. NC State score prediction by expert model

Clemson vs. NC State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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