Clemson vs. App State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Clemson Tigers return home looking for their first win of the season against the Appalachian State Mountaineers in college football's Week 2 game.

Clemson Tigers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Prediction / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Heading back home after a disappointing start to the 2024 season, the Clemson Tigers take on Step 1 of their rebuild in the home opener against the Appalachian State Mountaineers in college football's Week 2 game on Saturday.

Clemson dropped a 31-point decision against No. 1 Georgia last weekend in which the offense failed to score a touchdown and head coach Dabo Swinney found himself the target of criticism once again as the program has failed to qualify for the College Football Playoff for three straight seasons.

Despite the loss, Clemson was able to remain in the AP top 25 football rankings this week, clinging to the No. 25 position, but with far less margin for error in the team's ACC and playoff hopes.

App State comes into the 2024 season on a short list of teams that can compete for the Group of Five's automatic playoff bid, as quarterback Joey Aguilar passed for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the Mountaineers' win last week.

What can we expect from the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and App State compare heading into Saturday's game.

Clemson vs. App State prediction

The simulations favor the Tigers to hold serve at home against the Mountaineers, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat Appalachian State by a projected score of 34 to 24 and to win the game by an expected 9.7 points.

The model gives Clemson a relatively strong 73 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

Point spread

Clemson is a 17 point favorite against Appalachian State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 52.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -800 and for Appalachian State at +540.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• App State +17
• Clemson to win -800
• Bet over 52.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor Clemson to hold off its Sun Belt challenger this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 81.6 percent of simulations, while App State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 18.4 percent of sims.

The computer suggests that Clemson is 11.5 points better than Appalachian State on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this line.

Clemson will win 7.9 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, with a 12.7 percent chance to win the ACC championship, ranking third in the conference's title chase.

App State is projected to win 6.9 games this season on the index, which projects the team has a 9.5 percent shot to win the Sun Belt, ranking fourth among its conference rivals.

Clemson vs. App State game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ACC Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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