Clemson vs. Florida State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Clemson vs. Florida State by the football model that picks winners.

Clemson vs. Florida State football prediction / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

ACC rivals square off this weekend as Florida State welcomes No. 15 Clemson in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night.

Florida State’s season went into a tailspin almost as soon as it began, starting 1-4 overall with a 1-3 mark in ACC play and now there’s a concern that quarterback DJ Uiagalelei won’t play over the next few weeks as he recovers from a broken finger.

Clemson started out on the wrong end of a 31-point loss to Georgia, but rebounded to win three straight games, including a 2-0 start in the ACC as the 14th ranked scoring offense in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Florida State predictions

So far, the models are siding strongly with the road team this week.

Clemson is the favorite on the index, projected to win the game in the majority 80 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Florida State as the expected winner in the remaining 20 percent of sims.

In total, Clemson won out in 16,000 of the computer’s 20,000 simulations, while Florida State came out ahead in the other 4,000 projections.

Clemson is projected to be 12.6 points better than Florida State on the same field, in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Clemson is a 14 point favorite against Florida State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -700 and for Florida State at +500 to win outright.

A majority of bets expect the Tigers to handle the Seminoles this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Most bettors -- 75 percent of them -- project Clemson will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 25 percent of bettors expect the Seminoles will keep the game within 2 touchdowns or win in an upset.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 33.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Florida State will win 3.7 games and has a 5.3 percent chance to play in a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks