Clemson vs. Florida State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Florida State in this Week 6 college football game.

Clemson vs. Florida State score prediction / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 15 Clemson goes on the road against Florida State in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the expert model that picks winners.

Clemson is looking for a fourth-straight win overall and a third-straight in ACC play, and head coach Dabo Swinney comes into Tallahassee looking to pass Bobby Bowden for the conference record in victories: a win would give Swinney his 174th career W.

Florida State could use a win of any kind, as Mike Norvell hasn’t exactly lived up to Bowden’s standard at the program, starting out 1-4 overall with a 1-3 mark in ACC games, although the team is coming off a narrow win against ACC newcomer Cal a week ago.

What do the experts think of this week’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Florida State compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Clemson vs. Florida State score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Tigers to put away the Seminoles, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 30 to 22 and to win the road game by an expected margin of 7.4 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 68 percent chance of outright victory against the Noles.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Clemson vs. Florida State odds

Clemson is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -700 and for Florida State at +500 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Florida State +14.5
• Clemson to win -700
• Bet over 46.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to win this ACC matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 80.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Florida State as the expected winner in the remaining 19.9 percent of sims.

Clemson is projected to be 12.6 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

That also would not be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Seminoles.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 32.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Florida State a win total projection of 3.7 games and a 5.3 percent chance at becoming bowl eligible.

How to watch Clemson vs. Florida State

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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