Clemson vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Clemson visits Florida State in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Clemson vs. Florida State game prediction / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

ACC football returns to the gridiron as No. 15 Clemson hits the road against Florida State in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our latest prediction for the game.

These are two teams heading in different directions. 

In the preseason, both were ACC title favorites, but the Seminoles have skidded to a 1-4 record behind one of the nation’s worst offenses, while Clemson rebounded from a 31-point loss to Georgia in the opener to win 3 straight and start 2-0 in ACC play.

What can we make of the matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Clemson and Florida State renew their conference rivalry in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Clemson vs. Florida State prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. There isn’t much to like about Florida State anywhere on the field, but the front seven is getting some push lately, coming in at No. 8 in FBS with 16 sacks recorded. Defensive end Patrick Payton is coming off a personal-best 3.5 TFLs and 3 sacks last week.

But Clemson can protect its backfield and its quarterback, ranking 19th in the country by allowing just 4 total sacks, 2 of them in the opener.

2. The new QB. DJ Uiagalelei is sidelined with a broken finger, meaning the Seminoles will turn to Brock Glenn, an athletic 6-foot-2 prospect who has completed just 34 percent of his pass attempts in his career, and will have to rely on his mobility to escape Clemson’s front seven pressure.

But it hasn’t just been poor quarterback play that has resulted in Florida State ranking 126th in total offensive production. The protection has been subpar to say the least, and the receivers have been dropping passes left and right.

3. Clemson looks different. Ever since the ugly season-opening loss, the Tigers have found a new, aggressive identity on offense behind the expert play of quarterback Cade Klubnik. 

He’s led an attack that scored 165 combined points the last 3 games, throwing for 12 touchdowns and 2 picks while rushing for another 131 yards and 4 additional TDs.

And he’s protected by a veteran offensive line that is keeping the pocket clean these last few weeks. If the Seminoles can generate some pressure early on, they could potentially throw Klubnik off some of that rhythm, force him into unwanted throws and generate some takeaways. FSU’s nightmare season includes a 113th national ranking in turnover margin.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models suggest the Tigers will take care of the Seminoles this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is expected to win the game in the majority 80.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Florida State as the expected winner in the remaining 19.7 percent of sims.

Clemson is projected to be 12.6 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Clemson vs. Florida State prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Clemson is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Clemson at -700 and for Florida State at +500 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A strong majority of bets predict the Tigers will handle the Seminoles on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks, via Odds Shark.

Almost three-quarters of wagers -- 74 percent of them -- expect Clemson will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 26 percent of bettors expect Florida State will keep the game within the line or upset.

Clemson vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins?

Debuting a new quarterback can either jumpstart a team, or plunge it further into the depths it was trying to climb out of.

And while the insertion of Brock Glenn could generate some decent returns early on if he can move around the pocket, Clemson’s front seven should overpower the Seminoles’ suspect protection and contain him with some ease as the game wears on.

Florida State’s defense should keep the game relatively close as long as the first half, but Clemson should dominate both lines of scrimmage and present a more formidable challenge behind their skill players testing the deeper third of the field.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Clemson wins 38-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Clemson vs. Florida State score prediction by expert model

How to watch Clemson vs. Florida State

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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