Clemson vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Clemson vs. Louisville in this Week 10 college football game.

Clemson vs. Louisville football prediction / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Coming off its open weekend, No. 11 Clemson returns home against Louisville on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Clemson is on a 6-game win streak since the opener, beating opponents by 27 points per game on average, and sits atop the ACC standings moving into November football.

Louisville was 3-0 and ranked No. 15 in the country until a trip to Notre Dame resulted in the first of two straight losses and three defeats in the last five games.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Louisville predictions

As expected, the simulations are favoring the Tigers over the Cardinals at home.

Clemson is expected to win the game outright in the majority 67 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the presumptive winner in the remaining 33 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers came out ahead in 13,400 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Cardinals edged out Clemson in the other 6,600 predictions.

How does that translate when projecting a margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Clemson is projected to be 6.4 points better than Louisville on the same field in the updated simulations for both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Clemson is a 10.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 63.5 points for the game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -450 and for Louisville at +340 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors are giving the Cardinals an advantage over the Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Louisville is getting 52 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the score within the line.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Clemson will win the game and cover the spread.

Clemson vs. Louisville future predictions

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 33.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total prediction of 9.9 games this season.

Miami (89%) currently leads the ACC in playoff likelihood heading into this weekend.

Louisville ranks sixth in the conference with an 0.4 percent shot at the playoff, but is a sure thing to play in the postseason, with a 98.8 percent chance to be bowl eligible.

The index projects the Cardinals will win 7.6 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
T-11. Clemson/Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks