Clemson vs. Louisville score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Louisville in this Week 10 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Clemson vs. Louisville score prediction / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

Coming off an open weekend, No. 11 Clemson looks to extend its win streak at home against ACC challenger Louisville on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Louisville was undefeated and averaged 47 points per game in its first three outings, but dropped its next two and 3 of its next 5, falling to 3-2 in ACC play, but still ranking 10th in FBS in passing output with almost 303 yards per game on average.

Clemson has won 6 straight games since the season opening loss against Georgia, beating teams by 27 points on average and scoring 291 points in that time, sitting atop the ACC standings and within striking distance of an automatic College Football Playoff berth entering November.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Tigers and Cardinals face off in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Clemson and Louisville compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Clemson vs. Louisville score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the home team, but in a game it will have to work to win.

SP+ predicts Clemson will defeat Louisville by a projected score of 33 to 25 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 7.9 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 69 percent chance of victory over the Cardinals outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Clemson vs. Louisville picks, odds

Clemson is a 10.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -420 and for Louisville at +320 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Louisville +10.5
• Clemson to win -420
• Bet under 62.5 points

If you do, you’ll be siding with a slight majority of bettors who are taking the Cardinals to give the Tigers a game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Louisville is getting 52 percent of bets to either pull off the upset outright or to keep the final score within 10 points in a prospective loss.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Clemson will win the game and cover the double-digit point spread.

Clemson vs. Louisville splits

Clemson has been 19 points better on average than its opponents so far this season when accounting for total scoring margins in wins and losses.

Louisville has fared 4.9 points better than its competition as mounting losses have cut into the team’s margin the last few weeks.

Those figures have diverged over the last three games for both teams.

Clemson improved to being 22.7 points better than opponents in that span, while Louisville has averaged just 0.3 points better than the competition.

The venue also shows a marked advantage for Clemson, which is 28.3 points better than opponents when playing at home, compared to Louisville being 0.3 points better on the road.

Clemson vs. Louisville future predictions

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 33.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total prediction of 9.9 games this season.

Miami (89%) currently leads the ACC in playoff likelihood heading into this weekend.

Louisville ranks sixth in the conference with an 0.4 percent shot at the playoff, but is a sure thing to play in the postseason, with a 98.8 percent chance to be bowl eligible.

The index projects the Cardinals will win 7.6 games in ‘24.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Tigers to win big over the Cardinals this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson comes out ahead in the majority 67.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the presumptive winner in the remaining 33 percent of sims.

How does that translate when projecting a margin of victory in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 6.4 points better than Louisville on the same field in the updated simulations for both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Louisville vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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