Clemson vs. NC State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. NC State in this Week 4 college football game.

Clemson Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Conference rivals square off from Death Valley in the ACC opener as No. 21 Clemson returns from its idle week against NC State in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Clemson responded to its 31-point loss against No. 1 Georgia in the opener by pounding Appalachian State in a 66-20 decision before taking last week off to rest.

NC State spent last week rebounding from a 41-point loss to Tennessee by getting around Louisiana Tech in a 30-20 game that saw starting quarterback Grayson McCall leave with an injury.

McCall won't play in this game, meaning the Wolfpack will debut freshman C.J. Bailey in his first career start against Clemson's potent defensive front hoping to avoid falling to .500 on the year.

Clemson, meanwhile, is looking to avoid falling under .500 coming in at 1-1 overall.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and NC State compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Clemson vs. NC State score prediction

So far, the simulations currently favor the home team to take this ACC opener.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat NC State by a projected score of 32 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 11.4 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 76 percent chance of outright victory over the Wolfpack.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Clemson is a 20.5 point favorite against NC State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 44.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -2000 and for NC State at +980 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• NC State +20.5
• Clemson to win -2000
• Bet over 44.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also project the Tigers will win their ACC debut.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson comes out the projected winner in 88.5 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves NC State as the expected winner in the remaining 11.5 percent of sims.

Clemson is forecasted to be 18.9 points better than NC State on the same field by the FPI's estimation, still not quite enough to cover the spread.

Clemson ranks third among ACC teams with a 22.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.9 games this season, according to the FPI's metrics.

That model forecasts NC State will win 5.7 games and has an 0.2 percent shot at the playoff.

Clemson vs. NC State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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