Clemson vs. NC State picks, predictions, Week 4 college football odds, lines

Expert predictions for NC State vs. Clemson in this Week 4 football game by the computer model that picks winners.

Clemson vs. NC State picks, predictions / Ken Ruinard- staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

College football returns to action this weekend with an ACC opener of some consequence for the playoff picture, at least for No. 21 Clemson, which hosts NC State hoping to avoid falling under .500.

Grayson McCall won't be on the field for the Wolfpack after the quarterback suffered an injury last week, meaning we'll see freshman C.J. Bailey line up opposite Clemson's talented defensive front.

Sitting at 1-1, the Tigers hope to take an important step forward in what figures to be a more wide-open ACC championship picture and in need of a strong showing after a 31-point loss to Georgia.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. NC State picks, predictions

As expected, the computers are siding strongly with the home team this weekend.

Clemson comes out as the projected winner in the majority 88.4 percent of the computer's updated simulations, or 17,680 of the machine's predictions.

That leaves NC State as the projected winner in the remaining 11.6 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that Clemson will be 18.9 points better than NC State on the same field.

That would not be enough to cover the spread, however.

Clemson is a 20 point favorite against NC State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -1200 and for NC State at +750 to win outright.

Clemson is third among ACC teams with a 23.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is projected to win 8.9 games this season, per the index.

The model forecasts that NC State will win 5.7 games and is 13th in the ACC with a 0.3 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (35)
2. Georgia (23)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Miami
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Kansas State
14. Oklahoma State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Notre Dame
18. Michigan
19. Louisville
20. Iowa State
21. Clemson
22. Nebraska
23. Northern Illinois
24. Illinois
25. Texas A&M

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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