Clemson vs. Pittsburgh football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Clemson vs. Pittsburgh in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh football prediction / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

A notable ACC matchup kicks off from the Steel City as conference hopefuls No. 20 Clemson takes on Pittsburgh on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Clemson came out of its loss to Louisville with a victory at Virginia Tech and sits in second place in the ACC standings with no more margin for error in the postseason race.

Pittsburgh has dropped two straight after starting 7-0 this season and hopes to avoid a complete late-season collapse with a conference contender paying a visit.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh predictions

As expected, the models favor the Tigers on the road against the Panthers this week.

Clemson is the road favorite in the game, projected to win out in the majority 69.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers came out ahead in 13,840 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Panthers edged out Clemson in the other 6,160 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 7.2 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Panthers.

That’s because Clemson is a 10.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -385 and for Pittsburgh at +300 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bettors expect the home team to make this interesting, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Pittsburgh is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the game under the line in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Clemson will win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh future projections

Clemson sits third among ACC teams with an 11.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total projection of 9.4 games this season.

Miami (64.1%) leads the ACC in the playoff projection, followed by SMU (40.7%).

Pittsburgh slipped to fifth in the conference with a dismal 0.7 percent chance at the playoff after originally starting the season undefeated.

FPI gives the Panthers an expected win total projection of 8 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

How to watch Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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