Clemson vs. Pittsburgh prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Clemson takes on Pittsburgh in this ACC clash, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh Prediction / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

An important ACC football matchup kicks off from the Steel City this weekend as No. 20 Clemson faces off against Pittsburgh. Here’s what you should watch for on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

Clemson sits in second place in the ACC standings, improving to 6-1 in conference play after knocking off Virginia Tech and still has a clear path to the league championship game and, by proxy, the College Football Playoff.

Pittsburgh is still in the mix for the ACC title bout, but on considerably weaker footing after losing two straight games that erased the team’s perfect 7-0 record to start the season.

What can we expect for when the Tigers and Panthers face off in this ACC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Clemson and Pittsburgh meet in this Week 12 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Clemson hasn’t quite played up to its lofty preseason potential in the front seven, but it can still generate a solid pass rush, and should get the best of a Pittsburgh offensive line that looked out of sorts in a loss to Virginia, ranks 89th in sacks allowed, and 95th in negative plays surrendered with 6.22 per game.

2. On the ground. Pitt is 5th in FBS in pass play percentage, throwing the ball on almost 67 percent of its offensive snaps, but with that aerial attack stuck in neutral right now and its quarterbacks dealing with injuries, it should run the ball more behind Desmond Reid, leading a backfield that ranks 16th in yards per carry.

Reid has almost 1,100 all-purpose yards and 8 total touchdowns this season and he might find some room against a Clemson rush defense that is a little better than average, allowing almost 129 yards per game but a concerning 4.39 yards per carry on average.

3. Pressure. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik is hitting on just 54 percent of his passes this month and is working behind a line that allowed 4 sacks last week, is surrendering 1.33 sacks per game, and is top 40 in allowing almost 5 negative plays per game on average.

That could be an issue against a Pittsburgh defense that can create pressure almost at will, ranking 5th nationally with 3.33 sacks per game and with 8.1 tackles for loss on average each time out and can pack a punch behind a rotation of elite linebackers who can limit gains near the line.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Tigers over the Panthers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson comes out ahead in the majority 68.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 31.1 percent of sims forecast Pittsburgh will pull off the upset and avoid a third-straight loss.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 7.2 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Clemson vs. Pittsburgh prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Clemson is an 11.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -450 and for Pittsburgh at +340 to win outright.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh prediction: Who wins?

Clemson’s offensive output has declined over the last couple outings, but Klubnik and his targets should find some consistent angles against a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranks a meager 114th nationally by allowing almost 252 yards per game.

But the Tigers’ attempt to balance out that offense might run into a big yellow and blue wall as the Panthers are 19th in FBS against the run and are swarming around the line right now.

Likewise if Klubnik takes too long getting the ball out of his hands, as Pittsburgh will be generating early and consistent pressure against Clemson’s blockers and shrinking the pocket with regularity.

But the Panthers’ ability to put up a lot of points is up for debate. They haven’t scored more than 25 over those two straight losses and their productive outings have come against subpar defenses.

Given Pitt’s struggles at quarterback, Clemson will place a heavier emphasis on stopping the run, an area of relative strength overall despite some moments of weakness.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Clemson wins 31-21
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Clemson vs. Pittsburgh score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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