Clemson vs. Pittsburgh score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Pittsburgh in this Week 12 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh score prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

ACC football kicks off an intriguing conference game this week as No. 20 Clemson hits the road against Pittsburgh on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Clemson recovered from the Louisville loss by beating Virginia Tech on the road and moved to second-place in the ACC standings after Miami’s loss.

Pittsburgh dropped a second-straight game last week, at home to Virginia, that dropped the team out of the AP and College Football Playoff rankings and threw another wrench into its ACC title hopes.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Tigers and Panthers square off in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Pittsburgh compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh score prediction

The models are taking the Tigers over the Panthers this week, albeit in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat Pittsburgh by a projected score of 31 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.4 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 66 percent chance of outright victory over the Panthers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh odds, how to pick the game

Clemson is a 10.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -360 and for Pittsburgh at +280 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Pittsburgh +10.5
• Clemson to win -360
• Bet over 54.5 points

A majority of bettors expect the home team to make this interesting, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Pittsburgh is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the game under the line in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Clemson will win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh splits

Clemson ranks No. 15 nationally by averaging out 14.6 points better than opponents this season when adding up all the points in its wins and losses.

Pittsburgh is top 40 in FBS by averaging 6 points better than its competition so far in 2024.

Those margins have narrowed significantly over the last three games.

Clemson has been 5 points better than its opponents, while Pitt has seen its average scoring margin move to 0 points exactly over that span.

Pittsburgh has played well at home, where it averages 12 points better than the competition this year, while Clemson has been 7.5 points better than opponents when playing on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor Clemson over Pittsburgh in this ACC game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is the road favorite in the game, projected to win out in the majority 69.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 7.2 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Clemson vs. Pittsburgh predictions: What the analytics say

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh future projections

Clemson sits third among ACC teams with an 11.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total projection of 9.4 games this season.

Miami (64.1%) leads the ACC in the playoff projection, followed by SMU (40.7%).

Pittsburgh slipped to fifth in the conference with a dismal 0.7 percent chance at the playoff after originally starting the season undefeated.

FPI gives the Panthers an expected win total projection of 8 games in ‘24.

How to watch Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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