Clemson Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs prediction: Who wins the ACC Championship Game, and why?

What to watch for as Clemson and SMU square off in the 2024 ACC Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Clemson vs. SMU prediction for the 2024 ACC Championship Game / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

What you should watch for as Clemson and SMU face off in the 2024 ACC Championship Game with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line, with our prediction for the matchup.

The calculus for SMU is only too obvious: win, and you’re in the playoff.

But a loss could put the Mustangs out entirely, albeit controversially, as the committee would have to rationalize putting a victorious Clemson further ahead in the rankings, and to do so would mean dropping SMU potentially behind other Power Four teams just on the outside.

Clemson’s task, meanwhile, is as simple as SMU’s. Just win, and it’ll make the College Football Playoff, likely with a first-round bye, to boot.

What can we expect as Clemson and SMU meet in the ACC Championship Game? Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Clemson vs. SMU prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. SMU lead back Brashard Smith has been a revelation for this offense, earning All-ACC honors while ranking 8th among all backs nationally in all-purpose yards, rushing for 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns.

He could find some holes against a Clemson run stop that is just 14th in the ACC, allowed 200-plus rushing yards each in 2 of its losses, and is surrendering 150 ground yards per game, its most in 11 seasons.

2. Turnovers. One subtle measure of SMU’s success that hasn’t received a lot of attention is not only how well its defense is at getting takeaways -- it forced 21 of them -- but how proficient the offense is at turning them into points: the Mustangs are plus-77 in points scored off turnovers.

Even so, Clemson still has the major overall advantage when it comes to turnover margin, ranking 5th among 134 FBS teams with a plus-14 margin, taking the ball away 23 times and losing it 9 times.

3. Key matchup. That’ll be SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings against Clemson’s secondary. Jennings has 2,746 yards passing with 19 TDs and 7 INTs while hitting 67 percent of his throws.

He’s going against a Clemson air defense that covers its ground well, allowing just 54 percent completion and only 6.3 yards per throw while intercepting 14 passes, 6th-best in the country.

-

Who is favored?

SMU is a 2.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for SMU at -137 and for Clemson at +114 to win outright.

-

Clemson vs. SMU prediction: Who wins the ACC Championship?

Clemson’s front seven has been the program’s calling card over the last decade, but its recent performance against quality backs has been troubling, and SMU can take advantage.

Smith and Jennings spearhead one of the country’s most explosive offensive attacks, but it’s not the most efficient, ranking only top 50 in overall success rate, something Clemson’s defense can take advantage of provided it can avoid letting SMU peel off consistent long gainers.

Part of the Mustangs’ defensive success can be attributed to the fact that their offense has been able to build big, early leads against overmatched opponents, forcing the other team into throwing the ball more than they otherwise would and abandoning the run.

That’s not a problem that Clemson should have, boasting an offensive rotation that can more credibly test a Mustangs secondary that allows more than 230 yards in the air per game, and as quarterback Cade Klubnik is having a career year passing with over 3,000 yards.

There’s also something to be said for the venue, and what’s on the line. Clemson has been here before and responds well after losses: Dabo Swinney is 36-9 following a defeat as head coach.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Clemson wins 24-20
• In an upset
• And hits the under

More ... Clemson vs. SMU score prediction by football model

-

How to watch the ACC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

-

College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

-

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks