Clemson vs. SMU prediction for ACC Championship Game: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Clemson vs. SMU in the 2024 ACC Championship Game from a football model that simulates games.

Clemson vs. SMU prediction for the 2024 ACC Championship Game / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Clemson and SMU square off in the 2024 ACC Championship Game with a ticket to the College Football Playoff on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Clemson needs to win this game in order to make the College Football Playoff at all, and doing so would not just secure a place among the top dozen, but potentially a first-round bye, too.

A loss, however, drops the three-loss Tigers out of the national title race entirely.

SMU has made the most of its first year in the ACC, going undefeated in conference play, with just a field goal loss to BYU the team’s only blemish overall at 11-1, and ranks 5th nationally in scoring offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. SMU predictions

As expected, the models favor the Mustangs over the Tigers, but by a very narrow margin.

SMU is the close favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 53.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Clemson as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Mustangs come out on top in 10,760 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edged out SMU in the other 9,240 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

It doesn’t get any closer than this.

SMU is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Clemson on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Mustangs to cover a narrow spread against the Tigers.

That’s because SMU is a 2.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for SMU at -134 and for Clemson at +112 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors expect the Mustangs will take care of the Tigers and win the ACC title, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

SMU is getting 70 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 30 percent of wagers project Clemson will either win outright in an upset, or lose the game by a margin less than a field goal.

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Clemson vs. SMU future projections

SMU is sixth among 134 FBS teams with a 66.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Mustangs will win 11.5 games, implying the team will win just this upcoming game but not again this postseason.

Clemson is two places behind SMU in the computer’s playoff projection, with a 46.4 percent shot to make the 12-team field, notably ahead of Big 12 contender Arizona State and Mountain West hopeful UNLV.

And the index forecasts that Clemson will win 9.5 games, suggesting that, while the model expects it will lose the ACC title bout, it narrowly favors the team in its prospective bowl game.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

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What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Clemson vs. SMU in the ACC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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