Clemson vs. SMU score prediction for ACC Championship Game from expert football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. SMU in the 2024 ACC Championship Game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Clemson vs. SMU score prediction for 2024 ACC Championship Game / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Clemson and SMU face off in the 2024 ACC Championship Game with a date in the College Football Playoff on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

SMU should clinch a first-round bye in the playoff with a win here in the team’s inaugural season as ACC members, but a loss could jeopardize the program’s postseason ambitions with other teams hoping to take advantage lower down in the rankings.

Clemson’s dilemma is simple: win, and you’re in; lose, and you’re out. The committee is guaranteed to select the ACC champion, but the Tigers would not qualify for the top dozen with what would be a fourth loss on the season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers and Mustangs meet this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how SMU and Clemson compare in the 2024 ACC Championship Game.

Clemson vs. SMU score prediction

The models currently favor the ACC newcomer Mustangs to come out on top against the conference old guard Tigers and win the league championship.

SP+ predicts that SMU will defeat Clemson by a projected score of 30 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Mustangs a solid 63 percent chance of outright victory over the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-35-1 (53%) last weekend.

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ACC Championship odds, how to pick the game

SMU is a 2.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the ACC Championship Game.

FanDuel set the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for SMU at -132 and for Clemson at +110 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• SMU -2.5
• Mustangs to win -132
• Bet under 55.5 points

That’s the line most bettors are taking between the Mustangs and Tigers in the ACC Championship Game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Almost 7 in 10 of bets -- 69 percent of them -- are going towards the Mustangs winning the game and covering the narrow point spread.

The other 31 percent of wagers project that Clemson will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the margin under a field goal in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Mustangs over the Tigers in the game, but by a pretty narrow margin.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is the close favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 53.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Clemson as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

SMU is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Clemson on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... ACC Championship Game prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

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What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch the 2024 ACC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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