Clemson vs. South Carolina football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Clemson vs. South Carolina by an analytical football model that simulates games.

Clemson vs. South Carolina football prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

An in-state rivalry kicks off this weekend that comes loaded with College Football Playoff implications as Clemson hosts South Carolina. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

South Carolina has won five straight games and played itself into College Football Playoff consideration behind one of the country’s top defenses, but is still out of the picture and needs to win this game and hope for some outside help to get into the bracket.

Clemson is closer to making one of those top dozen spots, coming in this week as the first team out of the bracket and not only needs to beat the Gamecocks, but also for Miami to lose its season finale this weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. South Carolina prediction

The models are siding with the home team in this matchup, but by a closer margin.

Clemson is the favorite at home, coming out ahead in the majority 57 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves South Carolina as the presumptive winner in the remaining 43 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers come out on top in 11,400 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Gamecocks edge out Clemson in the other 8,600 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 2.6 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Tigers to cover a narrow spread against the Gamecocks.

That’s because Clemson is a 2.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -132 and for South Carolina at +110 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Tigers to handle the Gamecocks at home, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Clemson is getting 52 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers project South Carolina will either win outright in an upset or lose the game by less than a field goal.

Clemson vs. South Carolina future projections

Clemson still has a fighting chance in the national title race, with a 35.9 percent shot to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That’s good enough for 12th nationally, but third among ACC teams behind SMU (67%) and conference favorite Miami (78.8%) on the index.

South Carolina is fifth in the SEC with a 20.1 percent chance to make the playoff, good for 18th nationally.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch South Carolina vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Clemson, S.C.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks