Clemson vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. South Carolina by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Clemson vs. South Carolina score prediction 2024 / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Anything is possible in a crowded and fluid College Football Playoff picture as rivals Clemson and South Carolina meet in Death Valley on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

For the first time since 2013, both the Tigers and Gamecocks come into the Palmetto Bowl ranked in the AP top 25 poll, and each are in contention for the College Football Playoff, as well.

Both are outside the selection committee’s bracket projection this week, but can play their way into consideration with a good showing in this in-state rivalry matchup, with some outside help, too.

And there is recent precedent for an upset in this series, as unranked South Carolina toppled No. 8 Clemson by a single point in the 2022 game.

Clemson is the No. 12 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, but outside the top dozen in the projected bracket, as the committee still regards Miami as the ACC title favorite.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Gamecocks and Tigers meet this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and South Carolina compare in this Week 14 college football rivalry game.

Clemson vs. South Carolina score prediction

The models are siding with the home team in this matchup, but by the narrowest of margins.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 27 to 26 and to win the game by an expected margin of 0.9 points.

The model gives the Tigers a narrow 52 percent chance of outright victory over the Gamecocks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Clemson vs. South Carolina odds, how to pick the game

Clemson is a 2.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -102, Under -120).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -138 and for South Carolina at +115 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• South Carolina +2.5
• Clemson to win -138
• Bet over 49.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Tigers to take down the Gamecocks at home, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Clemson is getting 52 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers project South Carolina will either win outright in an upset or lose the game by less than a field goal.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models expect the Tigers will beat the Gamecocks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is the narrow favorite at home, coming out ahead in 56.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the game, a slight change from its 57 percent odds earlier this week.

South Carolina saw its chance improve marginally, moving to 43.2 percent odds to pull off the upset, according to the updated sims.

That model forecasts that Clemson will be 2.6 points better than South Carolina on the same field, or by about a field goal if we round that figure up.

More ... Clemson vs. South Carolina prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch South Carolina vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Clemson, S.C.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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