Clemson vs. Texas prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Clemson vs. Texas in the first round College Football Playoff matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Clemson vs. Texas football prediction 2024 / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

College football history will be made this weekend as Texas welcomes Clemson in the first-ever first-round playoff game on campus in the 12-team expanded format. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert model that simulates games.

Clemson earned a spot in the playoff after winning the ACC Championship Game, marking its first CFP appearance since the 2020 season, although Dabo Swinney has won two playoff national championships in recent memory.

Texas has two losses this season, both to Georgia, including one for the SEC championship, but is still one of the two most favored teams to win this year’s national championship.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Clemson vs. Texas prediction

As was expected, the projection models are siding with the Longhorns, who are big favorites against the Tigers at home in this first playoff matchup.

Texas is a considerable favorite on the index, which projects the Longhorns will win the game in 80.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the contest.

That leaves Clemson as the presumptive winner in the remaining 19.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Longhorns came out ahead in 16,080 of the index’s calculations for the matchup, while Clemson edged out Texas in the other 3,920 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Texas is projected to be 14.9 points better than Clemson on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover an already-generous point spread against the Tigers.

That’s because Texas is an 11.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And the book lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -450 and for Clemson at +340 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

Most of the bets being placed favor the Tigers to make this more of a challenge for the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Clemson is getting the majority 61 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under a dozen points in a defeat.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Texas will cover the point spread in a victory.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

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No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

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No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

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No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

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How to watch Clemson vs. Texas

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Austin, Tex.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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