Clemson vs. Virginia football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Clemson vs. Virginia by the football model that picks winners.

Clemson vs. Virginia football prediction / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

ACC football is back this weekend from Death Valley as No. 10 Clemson looks to expand its win streak in a matchup against Virginia in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Clemson is on a dominant five-game win streak since the season opener, scoring 243 combined points and starting out 4-0 in ACC play, boosting its playoff hopes behind the 12th ranked scoring offense in FBS, averaging 41 points per game.

Virginia is 2-2 over the last month with a better 4-2 overall record this season with a win over Boston College before falling by 4 against Louisville last time out, ranking 76th in scoring output.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Virginia predictions

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Tigers over the Cavaliers.

Clemson is projected to win the game in the majority 89.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Virginia as the expected winner in the remaining 10.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers came out ahead in 17,840 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Cavaliers won out in the other 2,160 predictions.

The index projects a comfortable victory for the Tigers on the scoreboard, too.

Clemson is projected to be 18.9 points better than Virginia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for Clemson to cover the spread.

That’s because Clemson is a 21.5 point favorite against Virginia in the game, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -1600 and for Virginia at +900 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers will handle the Cavaliers in the game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Clemson is getting 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers project Virginia will either win in an upset, or, more likely, will keep the game within the generous line.

Clemson vs. Virginia projections

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 43.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index projects the Tigers will be 16.8 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 11 nationally in that category.

That model gives Virginia a win total prediction of 5.6 games with a 48.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season.

And it gives the Cavaliers 1.2 points on an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 65 in the country.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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