Clemson vs. Virginia score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Virginia in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and scores.

Clemson vs. Virginia score prediction / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

No. 10 Clemson looks to extend its win streak in a matchup against Virginia in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert football model that picks winners and scores.

Clemson has won 5 straight games since the season opener, scoring 243 combined points and starting out 4-0 in ACC play, boosting its College Football Playoff chances behind the 12th ranked scoring offense in FBS, averaging 41 points per game.

Virginia is a improved 4-2 overall record this season and is 2-2 in ACC play, ranking 76th in scoring output.

What do the analytics project for this ACC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Virginia compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Clemson vs. Virginia score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Tigers over the Cavaliers in this conference tilt.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat Virginia by a projected score of 35 to 18 and to win the game by an expected 16.5 point margin.

The model gives the Tigers a strong 85 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Clemson vs. Virginia odds, picks

Clemson is a 21.5 point favorite against Virginia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -1600 and for Virginia at +900 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Virginia +21.5
• Clemson to win -1600
• Bet under 57.5 points

A plurality of bettors are taking the Tigers over the Cavaliers in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Clemson is getting 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers expect Virginia to either pull off the upset, or more likely, to keep the game within 3 touchdowns.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers by a wide margin against the Cavaliers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is projected to win the game in a majority 89.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Virginia as the expected winner in the remaining 10.9 percent of sims.

Clemson is projected to be 18.9 points better than Virginia on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, also not enough to cover the spread.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 44.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Virginia a win total prediction of 5.6 games and a 49.9 percent chance to make the postseason.

How to watch Virginia vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ACC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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