Clemson vs. Wake Forest football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Clemson vs. Wake Forest by the football model that picks winners.

Clemson vs. Wake Forest football prediction / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

ACC football kicks off this weekend as No. 10 Clemson hits the road against Wake Forest in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the expert analytical model that picks winners.

Clemson moved back into the top 10 this week after some notable losses among ranked teams, combined with its own 5 game win streak since the opening loss to Georgia, ranking 16th in FBS in scoring production and sitting at 3-0 in ACC play.

Wake is 105th nationally in scoring defense and 1-1 in conference games after taking out NC State last week, snapping a 3 game losing skid and moving to 2-3 overall on the season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Wake Forest prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Tigers against the Demon Deacons.

Clemson is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 87.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Wake Forest as the expected winner in the remaining 12.6 percent of sims.

Clemson is projected to be 17.5 points better than Wake Forest on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Clemson is a 20 point favorite against Wake Forest, according to the latest lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -1200 and for Wake Forest at +750 to win outright.

Bettors have a little more faith in the Deacons, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A slight majority of them -- 53 percent -- project that Wake Forest will either win in an upset or, more likely, keep the game within 20 points at home.

The other 47 percent of wagers forecast that Clemson will win the game and cover the 20 point spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for the Tigers this week.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Clemson will defeat Wake Forest by a projected score of 40 to 20.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 36.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.6 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Wake a win total projection of 4 games, the ACC’s worst, and an 11 percent chance to make a bowl game this season.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

How to watch Clemson vs. Wake Forest

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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