College football picks against the spread for Playoff games

The picks are in: What to expect as college football kicks off its historic first round playoff games, as On SI locks in our predictions against the spread.

Locking in our predictions against the spread for college football's historic first-round playoff games today. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

College Football Playoff time is finally here, as we embark on the historic opening Saturday of the first-ever 12-team national championship bracket. Now it’s time to lock in our predictions against the spread for the three biggest games on the schedule today.

How are we doing? College Football HQ went 3-3 in our picks against the spread last time out, splitting our six selections during Championship Week action. That brings our 2024 season total to 62-74 overall.

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change

College football picks against the spread

SMU at Penn State

Line: Penn State -8.5

We’ll see how the weather plays a role in this matchup, as it’s expected to be in the twenties with a 15 mile per hour wind, but no snow, which should enable the Mustangs’ offense to capitalize on the speed and explosion that have defined the unit.

And while the Nittany Lions have the defensive front seven to control the game’s tempo, especially in its pass rushing capacity against some overmatched SMU edge blockers, the Mustangs still have enough in their arsenal to keep this close.

How close? Not enough to pull the upset outright, given Penn State’s defensive advantages and its double-barrel backfield with the power to take over, but SMU is certainly fast enough to stay within a touchdown.

ATS pick: SMU +8.5

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Clemson at Texas

Line: Texas -13.5

This line keeps inching higher and higher in the Longhorns’ favor as bettors continue to invest in Clemson’s ability to keep this closer than the sportsbooks would suggest.

Over 60 percent of bettors are taking Clemson to cover here, according to the spread consensus picks for the game, and we agree.

Clemson does present a credible challenge defensively and with quarterback Cade Klubnik playing the best football of his career, but there are also glaring concerns on this roster.

Chiefly behind center, as lead back Phil Mafah is dealing with a shoulder injury, and on the offensive line, which is just very average in its pass blocking acumen.

It has to play its very best and then some against a Texas front seven that is the anchor of arguably college football’s single-most talented defense.

Quinn Ewers leads a Longhorns offense that has found its footing on the ground, but is still inconsistent at times, throwing 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions his last two times out.

That could leave a space for Clemson to cover, but in a losing effort, as we project Texas will come away with a 10-point victory at home.

ATS pick: Clemson +13.5

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Tennessee at Ohio State

Line: Ohio State -7.5

Ohio State boasts some genuine malice in its defensive front seven rotation, the engine behind the sport’s No. 1 ranked overall unit, and is good at generating consistent negative plays.

And the Buckeyes, as they tend to do, field some of the game’s most dynamic wide receiver talent.

But will they get the ball? Tennessee fields one of college football’s two or three most dominant pass rushing alignments up front and is going against an Ohio State offensive line that is down its left tackle and center to season-ending injuries.

That matchup alone could derail the Buckeyes’ offensive strategy. If they can’t keep their quarterback clean, he won’t have time to find his outlets, and OSU’s elite two-headed backfield won’t have any room to run and extend drives.

Michigan ran all over Ohio State when everyone in the country knew that’s all Michigan could do. Tennessee is a standard deviation better than the Wolverines running the ball.

Columbus could be Upset City when all is said and done, and Ryan Day could be under some newfound pressure on Sunday morning.

ATS pick: Tennessee +7.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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