College football picks against the spread for Playoff semifinal games

Locking in our predictions against the spread for college football's historic CFP semifinal games.

College football picks against the spread for CFP semifinal games / Adam Cairns / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football embarks on a historic round of semifinal playoff games as the expanded 12-team format is narrowed down to four contenders for the national championship. With things set to kick off, let’s lock in our final predictions against the spread for the two big games.

It’ll be a contrast of styles, as Notre Dame and Penn State play some of the nation’s most productive ground offense in the Orange Bowl semifinal game.

And in the Cotton Bowl, we’ll see Ohio State and its cohort of elite skill weapons who can spread the field like few other teams, against SEC runner-up Texas and its stifling defense.

The winners will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game to put a bow on a 2024 season that made history from start to finish.

Here are our picks against the spread for the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff.

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College football picks against the spread for CFP semifinal games

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and are subject to change

Orange Bowl Semifinal

Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Line: Notre Dame -1.5

On paper, the Fighting Irish look like the play here, given they’re 4-0-1 against the spread when favored by seven points or fewer, and when considering their postseason momentum.

And even more so as the Nittany Lions are 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 against the spread as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Notre Dame packs a punch on the ground, ranking 11th nationally in total rushing output per game with over 219 yards per game, and is fourth with 42 rushing touchdowns this year.

Jeremiyah Love has over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season, and quarterback Riley Leonard added another 15 scores running with over 800 yards.

But the Irish are also dealing with some prominent injuries to key contributors on their strong defensive line, and aren’t much of a credible threat throwing the football.

Leonard commands an aerial attack that ranks 101st among 134 FBS teams in production, averaging 145 yards each time out in ND’s two playoff games.

But the Nittany Lions are an elite run defense and field two elite backs of their own, even considering edge rusher Abdul Carter could be limited with an injured arm.

Notre Dame’s offensive strength plays into Penn State’s defensive strength, and the Irish don’t have the downfield game that can match up with what Drew Allar and his targets can produce.

Prediction: Penn State, 23-20

ATS pick: Penn State +1.5

More ... Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction by football model

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Cotton Bowl Semifinal

Ohio State vs. Texas

Line: Ohio State -5.5

There’s no question that Texas fields one of college football’s most dominating and consistent defensive units, especially on the line of scrimmage.

Theoretically, that could have been a major advantage for the Longhorns, given Ohio State’s offensive protection is down its starting left tackle and center to season-ending injuries.

But OSU’s line has outplayed its expectations during its two playoff games, holding off Tennessee’s elite front seven rushers and putting on an encore performance against Oregon.

And there’s some concern around the Texas rushing attack. When it’s on, few can stop it. But when it’s not, the offense tends to lose its momentum in a hurry.

The Longhorns averaged just 30 rushing yards in their two games against Georgia, then totaled nearly 300 yards in the first round against Clemson, then plummeted to 53 yards and a 1.8 yards per carry average in the quarterfinal against Arizona State.

And that line struggled at times against better pass rushing defenses, and Ohio State comes into this game with the highest sack rate in the country.

Plus, the Texas secondary has been on and off, too. It’s one of the nation’s best on the year, allowing opponents to average just 166 yards per game, and surrendered more than 200 passing yards in just two games.

But over the last two playoff outings, the Longhorns have given up 632 passing yards and four touchdowns in the air.

That’s a concern against a group of Buckeyes targets that include freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, who made mincemeat of Oregon’s gifted secondary, scoring twice off 7 catches in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.

We’re counting on the Longhorns getting more from quarterback Quinn Ewers and their rushing offense, enough to keep this within a touchdown from start to finish.

But the Buckeyes have a combination of confidence, elite skill threats, assertive quarterback play, efficient pass defense, and aggressive pass rush that’s hard to stop right now.

Prediction: Ohio State, 30-27

ATS pick: Texas +5.5

More ... Ohio State vs. Texas score prediction by football model

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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