College football picks against the spread for Week 10 games

Let's lock in our final picks against the spread for college football's top Week 10 games.

College football Week 10 predictions against the spread / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Looking ahead to another intriguing weekend of college football in Week 10, let’s lock in our final predictions against the spread for the biggest games across the country.

How are we doing? College Football HQ went 7-3 in our picks against the spread last weekend, bringing our 2024 season record to 41-39 overall.

We correctly predicted that Notre Dame would take out Navy and Oklahoma would keep it close against Ole Miss.

But we were stumped by LSU’s late collapse at Texas A&M and didn’t forecast how close Nebraska would keep it against Ohio State.

For better or worse, here are the picks we’re making against the spread for college football’s biggest games on the Week 10 schedule.

College football picks against the spread for Week 10 games

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change

Duke at Miami

ATS pick: Duke +20.5 | Playing a top-10 defense and staying within 10 or fewer points in each of its Power Four games should enable Duke to credibly challenge the Hurricanes, even on the road, and behind a front that can generate enough negative plays to prevent Cam Ward from getting everything he wants.

SI picks: Miami by 17

-

Kentucky at Tennessee

ATS pick: Tennessee -17.5 | A couple of inefficient offenses on the same field will keep this close early on, but Kentucky’s attack just isn’t there regardless of who throws the ball, especially against UT’s strong front seven, while the Vols have the ground game and a few deep shots from their young quarterback to pull away late.

SI picks: Tennessee by 20

-

Texas Tech at Iowa State

ATS pick: Iowa State -13.5 | Tech should have its quarterback on the field after an injury scare, but the Red Raiders are one of college football’s worst defenses on a per play basis (112th out of 134) and playing on the road against a Cyclones offense that is top-40 nationally in that category.

SI picks: Iowa State by 14

-

Ole Miss at Arkansas

ATS pick: Arkansas +7.5 | Ole Miss hasn’t covered in 3 of its last 4 games and is 1-3 against the spread in SEC games, going against a balanced Razorback offense playing at home that beat Tennessee. Arkansas is 4-1 ATS as an underdog and in SEC competition.

SI picks: Ole Miss by 7

-

Louisville at Clemson

ATS pick: Louisville +10.5 | While the Cardinals are 0-2 against the spread as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, those results have been close, by 10 or fewer in their last five outings, and showed they can move the ball in a shootout against Miami.

SI picks: Clemson by 10

-

Pittsburgh at SMU 

ATS pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 | Pitt’s defense found its groove by returning 3 Syracuse picks for TDs last week, and the Mustangs have been turnover-prone recently, but SMU has a strong ground game that could take control at home in a battle of newfound ACC title hopefuls.

SI picks: SMU by 3

-

Texas A&M at South Carolina

ATS pick: Texas A&M -3.5 | There are plenty of question marks around the Aggies’ offensive consistency thanks to a subpar vertical attack, and the Gamecocks will bring some serious heat from their front seven, but otherwise Carolina is 108th in passing and 115th in yards per play.

SI picks: Texas A&M by 6

-

Oregon at Michigan

ATS pick: Oregon -14.5 | It feels wrong to pick Michigan getting beat by more than 2 TDs at home given the relative durability of its defense, but it gets easier remembering how deftly Oregon moved against Ohio State’s secondary, the Wolverines’ bleak vertical game, and the Ducks’ progressively confident play on both lines.

SI picks: Oregon by 17

-

Georgia vs. Florida

ATS pick: Georgia -14.5 | Georgia is 1-4 against the spread against SEC teams, 1-5 ATS as the favorite, and 0-4 ATS as a 16-plus favorite, and had this line stayed at 16.5, we might have picked the Gators to take the points, but the Bulldogs’ defense should rattle Florida’s freshman quarterback enough to pull away late.

SI picks: Georgia by 16

-

Ohio State at Penn State

ATS pick: Ohio State -3.5 | There’s real concern for a Buckeyes offensive line that lost its star left tackle against a stout Penn State front seven that will be aggressive and create negative plays. But there’s enough of a skill gap between Ohio State’s receivers and the Nittany Lions’ back seven tacklers to make the latter a credible vulnerability.

SI picks: Ohio State by 6

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks