College football games on upset alert in Week 5

These college football teams could have a shot to make some noise when the Week 5 games kick off.
College football teams on upset alert in Week 5
College football teams on upset alert in Week 5 / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Upsets are always an intriguing part of any college football weekend, and this Saturday could present a few notable opportunities for some dogs to have their day.

Let’s take a tour around the country heading into NCAA football’s Week 5 schedule and predict what teams could be on upset alert when the games kick off.

College football upset alert for Week 5

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and are subject to change.

Louisville (+6.5) vs. Notre Dame

This game finds two teams that are playing some of the nation’s best third-down defense right now. Louisville is 9th and Notre Dame is 10th, both surrendering under 25 percent conversion success from opponents.

Offensively, the Cardinals are 34th and the Irish are 80th moving the chains on the money down, which could present an edge for Louisville late as it presents the more balanced offensive threat, a decided edge throwing the ball, and an attack that posts over 500 yards per game.

Riley Leonard not being a legitimate passing danger, issues on the Irish offensive line, and the Cardinals’ deep threats could spell a second loss for the Golden Domers.

Arkansas (+3.5) vs. Texas A&M

The Aggies have won 11 of 12 meetings in The Southwest Classic, but the Razorbacks are 2-0 against the spread as an underdog this season and just forced 5 turnovers in a win at Auburn.

A&M could limit takeaway opportunities by running the ball, something it’s proven good at so far, with three different backs averaging at least 5 yards per carry. Arkansas is 14th nationally defending the run and top 25 in surrendering just over 3 yards per attempt.

BYU (+3.5) vs. Baylor

This line might seem surprising until you remember that Baylor is 13-4 straight-up and 10-7 against the spread as a home favorite under Dave Aranda.

The outlier? Baylor hasn’t covered the spread in 7 of its last 8 games against a ranked competitor, and the Cougars are getting good QB play and look stronger on defense.

Washington State (+7.5) vs. Boise State

All eyes are on Ashton Jeanty to carry the load again, and the Broncos back should turn a profit against a Cougars run defense that is 107th nationally, surrendering almost 5 yards per carry.

And yet, Boise State has struggled defensively against FBS-tier offenses, allowing Georgia Southern to score 45 points and Oregon to pile up 37, and Washington State can spread things out and use its quarterback as a consistent rushing threat.

Alabama (+2.5) vs. Georgia

Calling this an “upset” might be a stretch, given how closely-matched the teams are and the narrow point spread. But on the books, the Tide is an underdog in a game it has more than every chance of winning.

Georgia’s offense has the weapons, but its performance at Kentucky left plenty to be desired, and now is going without guard Tate Ratledge. If the Wildcats could frustrate the Bulldogs’ protection that efficiently, the Tide certainly will.

Alabama hasn’t lost to Georgia since 2007, but that history is null and void with Nick Saban not on the sideline, yet Jalen Milroe’s mobility could be the decisive factor against a Bulldog front that was out of form against Kentucky.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.