College Football Playoff first round predictions: Who wins, and why?

Making our predictions for the first round College Football Playoff games kicking off today.

College football predictions for the first-round 2024 games today / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

History is made today as college football embarks on the first-round games in an expanded 12-team playoff that serves as the initial challenge for teams looking to win the national title. Now it’s time to make our predictions for the big games kicking off around the country.

As our attention moves to Saturday’s matchups, we look ahead to a historic tripleheader with two Big Ten teams and one SEC contender playing at home.

Clemson, the first-ever three-loss team to qualify for the College Football Playoff, goes on the road against SEC runner-up Texas on the Forty Acres.

Penn State and SMU square off at Happy Valley in a Big Ten vs. ACC showdown between two non-conference rivals each making their playoff debut in 2024.

Ohio State debuts at home against SEC challenger Tennessee in what figures to be the closest-fought game on the first-round schedule, and with the Buckeyes under considerable pressure to get things right after another loss to Michigan against the Vols in their first CFP game.

College Football Playoff predictions, picks

All times Eastern

SMU at Penn State

12 p.m. on TNT

While the Mustangs’ rush defense has boasted solid production all year long, a lot of that good play has come against overmatched competition.

Penn State presents an entirely different scale of athleticism when running the football, with star backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton working behind a line that doesn’t allow a ton of negative plays.

That gives the Nittany Lions an ability to churn out yards and eat up game clock, playing some of the nation’s best third down offense to boot.

Add in a vertical passing game behind quarterback Drew Allar that has grown more efficient this season working against an SMU secondary that ranks 91st in pass defense, and Penn State has everything it needs to make a statement at home.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 31-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Penn State vs. SMU prediction

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Clemson at Texas

4 p.m. on TNT

Clemson would prefer to forget the last time it went up against a ranked SEC opponent, getting pounded in a 34-3 rout against Georgia in the season opener.

And while Clemson has rebounded and improved all over the field since then, the liabilities that were apparent in that game have been known to reappear at times during the year.

With the concern around the Tigers’ ability to run the ball, more pressure is on Klubnik to make up some of that difference with his legs and to get his receivers involved early.

But Clemson is a very average pass blocking team and its young wide receiver corps will struggle against a Longhorns secondary that is the most productive in the country.

Poor offensive balance and a progressive inability to make up for it by throwing the ball against some of the best tacklers in the country is too much to ask for this Clemson team.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 27-17
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Clemson vs. Texas prediction

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Tennessee at Ohio State

8 p.m. on ABC

SEC teams dominating in these postseason showcases against Big Ten opponents just seems to be the order of the day, and until proven otherwise, we’re sticking with that formula.

And the Buckeyes have been burned more than most in this situation, going 2-13 against SEC opposition in postseason games, including an 0-3 mark under head coach Ryan Day.

Ohio State has a solid front seven that has generated plenty of negative plays and a rotation of elite wide receiver skill that can break open passing lanes and change the game on a single play.

But in order for those all-star receivers to break free, they need pristine protection and a quarterback who has time to distribute to his targets.

Ohio State had no answer against a Michigan team that literally couldn’t throw the football and everyone in the stadium knew they would run the ball.

And what the Vols have in the backfield is an order of magnitude above what the Wolverines were able to put on the ground.

Ohio State’s offense can sputter pretty badly if quarterback Will Howard is placed under consistent duress, and that just happens to be the Volunteers’ strong suit.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 27-24
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Tennessee prediction

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