College football predictions for 2024 Championship Week games by expert model

Let's lock in our final predictions for the biggest Week 15 college football games today with some help from an expert analytical model that picks winners.

Predictions for college football's 2024 Championship Week games / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

Championship Week kicks off our first postseason action in another historic college football campaign, and still with plenty to sort out in the new 12-team College Football Playoff, with at-large and potential automatic-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.

Georgia and Texas play in a highly-anticipated rematch for the SEC championship, while Clemson looks to make a last-ditch effort at the playoff against SMU for the ACC title, and Iowa State and Arizona State battle for the Big 12 crown, as Penn State meets Oregon for the Big Ten.hat

What do the analytical models suggest for the most important Week 15 action?

Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

College football Championship Week game predictions, picks

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change

Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Big 12 Championship Game

Line: Arizona State -1.5

What the model says: Something of a surprise, as the index calculates the Cyclones will upset the Sun Devils by a narrow 55 percent margin. Watch the solid Iowa State air defense against an Arizona State offense that just lost its top receiver, but ASU should have an advantage on the ground against ISU’s dismal rush defense.

Prediction: Iowa State by 2

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Clemson vs. SMU

ACC Championship Game

Line: SMU -2.5

What the model says: After going undefeated in conference play in their first year as members of the ACC, the Mustangs, playing behind one of the nation’s most potent offenses, ranking 6th with nearly 40 points per game, cling to a narrow 54 percent probability to beat the Tigers, who are winless against AP ranked teams this season. A win should clinch a first-round bye.

Prediction: SMU by 1

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Penn State vs. Oregon

Big Ten Championship Game

Line: Oregon -3.5

What the model says: Another impactful upset to watch for this week, as Penn State is projected to take down favorite Oregon in 54 percent of the computer’s simulations. The winner of this game likely earns a first-round bye, while the loser should host a first-round playoff game.

Prediction: Penn State by 1

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Georgia vs. Texas

SEC Championship Game

Line: Texas -2.5

What the model says: Texas is poised to avenge its only loss, when, as the No. 1 team in the country, it dropped a 30-15 decision against Georgia at home. Its defense just might be better this time, and the Bulldogs’ secondary looks vulnerable. The model gives the Longhorns a 62 percent shot to finish its inaugural season in the SEC as champs.

Prediction: Texas by 4

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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