College football Week 10 score predictions by expert model

What an expert analytical model predicts for the biggest games on the Week 10 college football schedule.

Expert predictions for Week 10 college football games by an analytical model that picks winners. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Week 10 of the college football schedule brings us our first taste of November action with at-large and potential auto-bid playoff teams in action looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.

While eight of college football’s top 25 teams are taking the first Saturday of November off to rest, there’s still plenty of consequential action across the country, especially in the Big Ten and ACC with a few SEC games that could turn a few heads, as well.

What do the analytical models suggest for the Week 10 action?

Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

College football Week 10 predictions

Duke at Miami

What the analytics say: Miami has a 91 percent chance to win the game outright behind one of college football’s most potent offenses, but Duke is a legitimate threat defensively.

Prediction: Miami by 20

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Ole Miss at Arkansas

What the analytics say: Ole Miss has a 74 percent chance to win with a strong defensive front seven and the skill weapons who can get behind the Razorbacks’ secondary.

Prediction: Ole Miss by 9

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Air Force at Army

What the analytics say: Army has a strong 95 percent chance of victory behind college football’s most productive backfield against the Falcons’ dismal rush defense.

Prediction: Army by 26

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Minnesota at Illinois

What the analytics say: The models are giving Minnesota the edge over Illinois, with a 55 percent chance of victory in what would be its fourth-straight victory despite some struggles running the football.

Prediction: Minnesota by 2

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Oregon at Michigan

What the analytics say: Oregon is a big favorite on the index with a 78 percent chance of outright victory thanks to a battery of skill threats who can get behind Michigan’s solid defense.

Prediction: Oregon by 11

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Georgia vs. Florida

What the analytics say: Georgia comes out ahead in 80 percent of the computer’s simulations coming off its idle week and playing strong defense against Florida’s young quarterback.

Prediction: Georgia by 12

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Texas Tech at Iowa State

What the analytics say: Iowa State is getting 83 percent confidence from the prediction models to stay undefeated and in the Big 12 title race against a Red Raiders defense that’s among the nation’s worst on a per-play basis.

Prediction: Iowa State by 13

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Indiana at Michigan State

What the analytics say: Kurtis Rourke makes a comeback to lead the Hoosiers, who have an 83 percent chance to win this Big Ten clash and stay undefeated.

Prediction: Indiana by 15

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Kansas State at Houston

What the analytics say: The models give K-State an 84 percent chance to beat the Cougars with a strong ground game and run defense in this Big 12 road tilt.

Prediction: Kansas State by 15

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Texas A&M at South Carolina

What the analytics say: A close call for the simulations, which give the Aggies a narrow 54 percent advantage against the Gamecocks’ strong defensive line, but Carolina is struggling to move the ball on a consistent basis.

Prediction: Texas A&M by 2

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Louisville at Clemson

What the analytics say: Clemson comes out ahead in 67 percent of the computer’s prediction models over Louisville, but the Cardinals could make this close with a productive aerial attack that played nearly point for point against Miami.

Prediction: Clemson by 6

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Pittsburgh at SMU

What the analytics say: SMU is getting 70 percent favorability from the models in this suddenly crucial ACC matchup against undefeated Pitt.

Prediction: SMU by 8

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Ohio State at Penn State

What the analytics say: Ohio State has a 61 percent chance to beat Penn State despite some concerns on the offensive line but still boasting elite skill weapons who can break a game open.

Prediction: Ohio State by 4

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