College football Week 11 game predictions by expert model

An expert analytical football model offers predictions for the biggest Week 11 college football games.

College football Week 11 predictions, picks / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 11 of the college football schedule brings us another taste of November action with at-large and potential auto-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.

We have a clearer picture of where things stand nationally after the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, and we could see some movement across that poll and the updated seeding order after what transpires over this weekend.

What do the analytical models suggest for the Week 11 action?

Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

College football predictions for Week 11 games

Purdue at Ohio State

What the model says: Ohio State has a more than 99 percent chance to beat the reeling Boilermakers, who come in with college football's worst scoring margin average per game and yet to win a Big Ten game.

Prediction: Ohio State by 41

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Miami at Georgia Tech

What the model says: Miami is getting 77 percent odds to beat the Ramblin' Wreck outright, but Tech can play some solid pass defense if it has a mind to, and the Hurricanes' defense has not put out as quality a product as the Cam Ward-led offense has.

Prediction: Miami by 11

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Florida at Texas

What the model says: As expected, Texas is the big favorite with a 91 percent probability to beat the Gators, who could be down to their third-string quarterback after losing Graham Mertz and then DJ Lagway, and the Longhorns are playing some tough defense, too.

Prediction: Texas by 20

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Georgia at Ole Miss

What the model says: A critical test for both these SEC hopefuls, and notably it's the Rebels who are the current favorite, with a 54 percent chance to take down the Bulldogs, who come into this week as the projected SEC champ and No. 2 seed in the playoff.

Prediction: Ole Miss by 1

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Michigan at Indiana

What the model says: Expect the Hoosiers to keep their historic streak alive as the index favors IU with a strong 87 percent likelihood against Michigan, which can play some tough defense up front but has been unable to match that effort with any real offense to speak of.

Prediction: Indiana by 17

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Iowa State at Kansas

What the model says: Coming off its first loss of the season, Iowa State remains the favorite against the Jayhawks with a narrow 55 percent chance of outright victory, but in a very close game.

Prediction: Iowa State by 2

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Army at North Texas

What the model says: We'll see if Bryson Daily returns at quarterback for Army, which has a 62 percent chance to win outright, but faces a North Texas offense that can throw the ball and put up some serious points.

Prediction: Army by 5

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Clemson at Virginia Tech

What the model says: Coming off its second loss of the season, Clemson remains the favorite in this ACC road test with a 63 percent likelihood to beat a Hokies team dealing with some injuries.

Prediction: Clemson by 5

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Colorado at Texas Tech

What the model says: Sitting in a tie for second place in the Big 12 standings, suddenly the Buffs are within striking distance in Coach Prime's second year, and with a 64 percent chance to take down the Red Raiders, one of college football's worst pass defenses.

Prediction: Colorado by 5

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South Carolina at Vanderbilt

What the model says: Two SEC teams on the upswing, but the Gamecocks and their stout defensive line get the slight edge, with a 59 percent chance against the Commodores on the road.

Prediction: South Carolina by 3

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Maryland at Oregon

What the model says: Oregon is predictably a big favorite, with 93 percent odds to take down the Terrapins at home behind one of college football's most potent offensive attacks and stay atop the Big Ten standings.

Prediction: Oregon by 24

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Mississippi State at Tennessee

What the model says: A virtual lock for the Volunteers, who have a 94 percent chance of outright victory against an MSU team yet to win a game in SEC play.

Prediction: Tennessee by 24

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Florida State at Notre Dame

What the model says: Likewise for the Fighting Irish in a matchup against the Seminoles we thought back in the preseason would have playoff implications, but now is a 96 percent lock for Notre Dame against an FSU opponent that has just 1 win on the season.

Prediction: Notre Dame by 29

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Alabama at LSU

What the model says: Effectively a College Football Playoff elimination game, the Crimson Tide are getting a solid 70 percent chance to take down the Tigers on the road behind quarterback Jalen Milroe against LSU's star gunslinger Garrett Nussmeier.

Prediction: Alabama by 8

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Washington at Penn State

What the model says: Penn State is getting 87 percent odds to take down the Huskies and rebound from the Ohio State loss, but it needs to get a little more offensive production as the team looks ahead to a possible playoff berth sitting at No. 6 coming into this week.

Prediction: Penn State by 17

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Nevada at Boise State

What the model says: Ashton Jeanty should find some room against a Nevada run defense that is among college football's worst this season, and the Broncos have a 94 percent chance of victory.

Prediction: Boise State by 25

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Virginia at Pittsburgh

What the model says: Pitt is coming off a heartbreaking first loss of the season, but returns home against a beatable Virginia team against which it has a 76 prcent likelihood to win outright.

Prediction: Pittsburgh by 11

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BYU at Utah

What the model says: Undefeated and alone atop the Big 12 standings, the Cougars take perfection on the road against a rival in the Holy War game, but have a 60 percent chance to win outright and stay perfect when it's starting to matter.

Prediction: BYU by 4

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Utah State at Washington State

What the model says: Wazzu is a lock to take down the Aggies at home with 94 percent probability to win outright against a Utah State defense that allows more than 40 points per game.

Prediction: Washington State by 24

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Place your bets ... Week 11 college football picks against the spread

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