Colorado vs. Kansas football prediction: What the analytics say

The latest prediction for Colorado vs. Kansas in this Big 12 clash from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Colorado vs. Kansas football prediction 2024 / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

An important Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as Kansas welcomes No. 16 Colorado. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Colorado sits in second place in the Big 12 standings and controls its own destiny in the conference championship picture and thus the College Football Playoff race.

Standing in the Buffaloes’ way is Kansas, on a two-game win streak culminating in a signature victory against then-undefeated BYU last weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Colorado vs. Kansas predictions

So far, the models are giving a slight edge to the Buffaloes over the Jayhawks.

Colorado is the current favorite to win, coming out ahead in 54.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Kansas as the presumptive winner in 45.4 percent of the sims.

In total, the Buffaloes came out on top in 10,920 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Jayhawks edged out CU in the other 9,080 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 1.7 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buffaloes to cover the spread in this one.

That’s because Colorado is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -128 and for Kansas at +108 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Buffaloes will take care of the Jayhawks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Kansas will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a field goal margin in a loss.

Colorado vs. Kansas future projections

Colorado sits first among Big 12 teams with a 33.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index forecasts the Buffaloes will win 9.8 games this season.

Kansas has its work cut out just getting to a bowl game in 2024 with a 4-6 record and just two games to earn qualification.

The model projects the Jayhawks will win 4.9 games this year and have a 22.3 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

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How to watch Colorado vs. Kansas

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Time: Kansas City, Mo.

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 1:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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