Colorado vs. Kansas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Colorado vs. Kansas by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado vs. Kansas score prediction 2024 / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off as No, 16 Colorado hits the road against Kansas in a battle of resurgent conference teams. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners

Colorado has played its way into contention for the Big 12 Championship Game and just has to win out to earn a spot in Arlington and, by proxy, the College Football Playoff.

Kansas may be 4-6 but is playing some of its best football right now, winning 3 of its last 4 culminating in a signature upset win at then-undefeated BYU.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Buffaloes and Jayhawks square off in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and Kansas compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Colorado vs. Kansas score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Buffaloes over the Jayhawks, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that Colorado will defeat Kansas by a projected score of 30 to 29 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1 point in the process.

The model gives the Buffaloes a narrow 54 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Colorado vs. Kansas odds, how to pick the game

Colorado is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -146 and for Kansas at +122 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ..

• Kansas +2.5
• Colorado to win -146
• Bet under 59.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Buffaloes will cover the narrow line against the Jayhawks, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project that Kansas will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the final margin under a field goal in a loss.

Colorado vs. Kansas splits

Colorado comes into this weekend averaging out 12.1 points better than its opponents, while Kansas has been 1.2 points better than its competition this season.

Those averages have inflated for both teams over the last three games.

Colorado has improved to being 16.7 points better than its opponents in that time, while Kansas has been 3.7 points better than the competition over that span.

When playing at home this year, the Jayhawks have averaged 5.8 points greater than their opponents, while the Buffaloes have been 13.8 points better when playing on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Jayhawks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado is its current favorite to win, coming out ahead in a slight majority 54.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Kansas as the presumptive winner in 45.4 percent of the sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 1.7 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that result would also entail bettors taking Kansas +2.5 as the Buffaloes would not cover.

How to watch Colorado vs. Kansas

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Time: Kansas City, Mo.

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 1:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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