Colorado vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Colorado hosts Kansas State in this Week 7 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Colorado vs. Kansas State Prediction / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

A marquee Big 12 football matchup kicks off under the lights as Colorado plays host to No. 18 Kansas State in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for this critical conference game.

Colorado has improved from a year ago, starting out to a 4-1 overall record that includes a solid 2-0 start in Big 12 play, behind the effort of two of college football’s best players: quarterback Shedeur Sanders and noted two-way player Travis Hunter.

When we last saw Kansas State, two weeks ago, it was in a statement victory over then-ranked Oklahoma State that saw the team improve to 1-1 in Big 12 play, but comes into this game under considerable pressure to avoid falling under .500 in league play in what would be a blow to the school’s conference championship hopes.

What can we expect in this matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Kansas State pays a visit to Colorado, with our updated prediction for this Week 7 college football game.

Colorado vs. Kansas State prediction: What to watch

1. Going deep. Colorado is 9th in FBS and 2nd in the Big 12 in passing production as Sanders is completing 70 percent of his throws with 14 TDs and 3 picks, dealing to a variety of capable receivers who can stretch the field, and could have an edge against a Kansas State secondary that is 115th nationally and 12th in the Big 12 when defending against the pass.

2. On the ground. Key to the Wildcats’ offensive strategy will be to run the ball and bleed the game clock to keep Sanders & Co. on the sideline. 

It plays into a team strength, as the Wildcats are 2nd in the Big 12 and 7th nationally with 252 yards per game on average. 

Colorado is 80th against the rush in total production, but is also 1 of 6 FBS teams to not allow a 100-yard rusher this season and played very well against UCF’s powerful, then-No. 1 ranked rushing attack in a win two weeks ago.

3. Turnovers. Despite the Buffaloes still not putting up ideal numbers when it comes to total defensive production, they are a significantly improved unit, ranking 4th in FBS by not allowing more than 7 points in the second half all year. Part of that improvement involves getting their hands on the football. CU forced 4 turnovers against UCF and has forced 9 over the last 3 games.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are giving a slight edge to the Wildcats over the Buffaloes.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State is projected to win outright in a slight majority 52.3 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 47.7 percent of sims.

That narrow margin extends to the FPI’s score projection, as Kansas State is expected to be just 0.9 points better than Colorado on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Kansas State vs. Colorado prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -165 and for Colorado at +140 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors have more faith in the Buffaloes in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 57 percent -- expect that Colorado will either win in an upset or at least keep the game within the line.

The other 43 percent of wagers forecast that Kansas State will win the game and cover the spread.

Colorado vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins?

We’re more than willing to entertain the idea of a Colorado upset here, given the remarkable capacity of Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes’ receivers to make up for the team’s dismal rushing production. 

That vertical game accounts for an astonishing 80 percent of CU’s entire offensive output and it contains the firepower to bail the team out of any early trouble it gets into. If it comes to a last-ditch effort to win it late, the Wildcats’ secondary could be in trouble.

And even though Kansas State presents a formidable front when rushing the quarterback, leading the Big 12 in sacks and ranking 2nd in tackles for loss, Sanders is also apparently immune from pressure, still peeling off consistent gainers with a combination of mobility and accuracy, despite being the nation’s third-most sacked quarterback.

But the Wildcats are still arguably the most complete team in this conference, and have the blockers and the backs to establish the run early, slowing the game and keeping the Buffs offense on the sideline, while a rotation of good pass rushers try to jostle Sanders out of his rhythm.

Colorado’s defense has also struggled somewhat against mobile quarterbacks, and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson is one of the nation’s more adept running signal callers, a crucial extra dimension to the team’s rushing capacity.

This could honestly go either way, particularly as Colorado’s defensive improvements do look convincing, but the Wildcats’ overall talent level and ground game give them the final edge.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Kansas State wins 30-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Kansas State vs. Colorado score prediction by expert model

How to watch Kansas State vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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