Colorado vs. North Dakota State score prediction by college football analytic model

What the analytics predict for Colorado vs. North Dakota State in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score predictions for Colorado vs. North Dakota State by a college football analytic projection model. / Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 of an already-historic 2024 college football season begins on Thursday night as Deion Sanders kicks off Year 2 at the helm in Colorado against FCS challenger North Dakota State.

Don't overlook the Bison: they've won six straight games against FBS competition, including three results against Big 12 teams, which the Buffaloes now are after this year's realignment.

Colorado started off 3-0 in Coach Prime's debut last season, but lost six straight to end the year and underwent another major roster overhaul by utilizing the transfer portal.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to forecast the game, along with the latest betting information for Week 1.

Colorado vs. North Dakota State prediction

The simulations are favoring Colorado to come through in its Week 1 game on Thursday.

SP+ projects the Buffaloes will defeat the Bison by a projected score of 34 to 32 and will win the game by an expected 2.5 points.

The model gives Colorado a narrow 56 percent chance of victory outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Colorado is a 9.5 point favorite against North Dakota State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 59.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Colorado at -360 and for North Dakota State at +280.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• North Dakota State +9.5
• Colorado to win -360
• Over 59.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor Colorado to win the Week 1 opener.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that simulates games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts that Colorado will win the game in 71.3 percent of simulations, while the Bison win out in the remaining 28.7 percent of sims.

Colorado vs. North Dakota State game time, schedule

When: Thurs., Aug. 29
Time: 7 p.m. CT, 6 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks