Colorado vs. Texas Tech football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Colorado vs. Texas Tech in this Week 11 college football game.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech football prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as newly-ranked No. 21 Colorado goes on the road against Texas Tech. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Colorado moved into the national rankings when it was idle two weeks ago, and returns sitting in a second-place tie in the Big 12 standings with a 4-1 mark in conference play.

Texas Tech is on a high after knocking off undefeated Iowa State by one point last weekend, improving to 4-2 in Big 12 games, despite ranking 121st nationally in scoring defense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech predictions

So far, the models are giving a big edge to the Buffaloes against the Red Raiders.

Colorado has emerged as a big road favorite, coming out ahead in a majority 63.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 36.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Buffaloes came out in front in 12,700 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Red Raiders edged out the Buffs in the other 7,300 predictions.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 5.1 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Buffaloes to cover the spread in this one.

That’s because Colorado is a 3.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -156 and for Texas Tech at +130 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors are expecting the Buffaloes to edge out the Red Raiders, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Texas Tech will either win the game outright in an upset, or will keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech future predictions

Colorado is third among Big 12 teams with a 14 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Those simulations forecast a 8.9 win total projection for the Buffaloes this season.

Texas Tech has a 1.8 percent chance to make the playoff, and is projected to win 7.5 games in 2024.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Colorado vs. Texas Tech

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3 p.m. CT | 2 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks