Colorado vs. Texas Tech score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Colorado vs. Texas Tech in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech score prediction / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

An important Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as newly-ranked No. 20 Colorado goes on the road against Texas Tech. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado sits in a second-place tie in the Big 12 standings with a 4-1 mark in conference play and was included in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

Texas Tech is on a high after knocking off undefeated Iowa State by last weekend, improving to 4-2 in Big 12 games, despite ranking 121st nationally in scoring defense.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buffaloes and Red Raiders meet in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and Texas Tech in this Week 11 college football game.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Buffaloes against the Red Raiders in this one.

SP+ predicts that Colorado will defeat Texas Tech by a projected score of 32 to 29 and to win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points.

The model gives the Buffaloes a narrow 58 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech odds, how to pick

Colorado is a 4.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points in the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -184 and for Texas Tech at +152 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas Tech +4.5
• Colorado to win -184
• Bet under 62.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are taking the other side of the action and expect the Buffaloes to come out ahead of the Red Raiders, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Texas Tech will either win outright in an upset or keep the margin under 5 points in a loss.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech splits

Colorado has averaged 10 points better than opponents so far this season when counting up all the points in its wins and losses.

Texas Tech is playing closer games, but averages out as 2.1 points better than the competition in its games in 2024.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games: Colorado has been 11.7 points better than opponents, while Texas Tech has been 8 points worse on average over that span.

Texas Tech has averaged 8 points better when playing at home this season, while Colorado has played 13.8 points better than opponents when on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Red Raiders in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado is a favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 63.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 36.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 5.1 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech future projections

Colorado is third among Big 12 teams with a 17 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

BYU (50.4%) leads the conference in that category, while Iowa State (21.8%) sits in second place, according to the index’s calculations this week.

FPI projects the Buffaloes will win 8.8 games this season.

The model gives Texas Tech a win projection of 7.5 games.

How to watch Colorado vs. Texas Tech

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3 p.m. CT | 2 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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